You Can’t Spell Phillies Without…

Oh My God Are They Frickin’ Terrible.

In the short term, Roy Halladay’s latest DL stint may help the Phillies.  That is how bad things have gotten.  Cloyd, Morgan, the pitcher the Phillies call up will likely perform like a bottom of the rotation starter.  This means, they could at least keep you in the game, something Halladay failed to do in four of his seven starts.  And, things were only getting worse.  The last two times out, the game was over by the 3rd inning.  That wears on a team’s psyche.  That it is the former ace getting hammered probably makes things all the more uncomfortable.  At least the other 24 guys won’t have to watch Halladay get rocked any longer.  It’s something no one wants to see.

The 2012 season fell apart with a Halladay trip to the DL.  The offense was just good enough last year to win some games and solid pitching through May had the Phillies over .500 at the start of June.  But then Halladay went to the DL, the Phillies went in a prolonged slump and didn’t bottom out until they were 14 games under .500.  This DL trip won’t cause that kind of damage, but the Phillies could be looking at a similar record come the All-Star Break.

Somehow, even with the addition of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Michael Young–the Phillies offense has gotten worse.  A good bit worse, actually, as they average 3.5 runs a game and rank near the bottom in almost every offensive category.  How did this happen?  Well, Utley’s solid start hasn’t offset Ruiz’s career year from 2012.  Ryan Howard has been good for only 1 of 5 weeks.  Michael Young is hitting for no power, which magnifies the loss of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino.  Between CF, the corner OF spots and catcher, the Phillies have been historically bad offensively.  Roy Halladay has nothing to do with that.

The problem for the Phillies is that while the offense will likely get a little bit better, it’s certainly not going to be good enough to win games on their own and it won’t be enough to cover for a rotation with two AAA guys in the 4 and 5 spots.  Throw in the still pitiful middle relief and the Phillies have no formula to win.  They can’t out-hit you, and it’s much harder for them to out-pitch you than it used to be.

Yes, the Phillies have gotten off to some average starts during their playoff streak and of course last year (when they were an identical 14-18), but they arrived at 14-18 in a different manner this season.  There is a different look about them, and they’ve done it against mostly inferior opposition.  Good teams have completely handled the Phillies to this point and as they embark on a stretch where they’ll face SF, Arizona, Washington, Atlanta, etc., you have to believe that their current win pace, as troubling as it is, might not even be sustainable.  This team could easily tumble to 10, 12 games under .500 in the next six weeks.

The question is, if they get there, what will be the course of action and do the Phillies have the proper personnel in place to carry out a plan that could re-shape this team?  Without a quick turnaround, the Phillies will have to break their commitment to the status quo.  One of the first posts I ever wrote about the Phillies talked about how I hoped fans liked this group of players, because they were stuck with them.  That has certainly turned out to be the case as Ruben Amaro has shown only minimal amounts of creativity as he tries to escape the burden of his own contracts.

To execute a reversal of fortune, the Phillies are going to have to shed a lot of payroll.  I don’t think they can pull of a trade like Boston did with LA, but you see how that salary dump has been a reset button for that franchise.  The Phillies look like they have had the Roy Halladay decision made for them.  That’s 20 million dollars of relief.  Chase Utley to an AL contender?  That’s 15 million more.  Carlos Ruiz?  Five million.  Could you move 50% of Cliff Lee’s deal?  I think Ryan Howard’s contract is the only one that you are truly stuck with.  You probably hold onto Hamels because of his age, but other than that, if the Phils become sellers they must really sell.  S

Strip it down and find someone else to rebuild it, because Ruben Amaro has proven already that he’s not the right guy to spend 160 million dollars.  The Phillies need a player development guy and someone with a better feel for putting a team together.

 

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Will Chooch Save the Phillies?

Out of His Depth.

Or, maybe the first question is, do the Phillies need to be saved?  Thirteen games is hardly a deep look into the season, but considering the 6-7 Phillies were supposed to take advantage of a soft early schedule, it certainly looks like the Phillies need a boost.  Or else they could be headed toward a repeat of 2012.  One of the reasons it’s tempting to project out the Phillies after so few games is because the team looks so familiar.  Same names, same manager, same problems.  Several of their early losses look like they were pulled from the 2012 files.  Could one player make that much of a difference?  Is Ruiz’s offense and his handling of the staff something that turns games in the Phillies favor?  With Chooch coming off a career year, it’s tempting to make those arguments.  

But, I think that argument ignores what the real problems were last year.  The Phillies season fell apart last year after Roy Halladay went on the DL (while Ruiz was having that career year).  On August 2nd, the last game Carlos Ruiz played before returning on September 9th, the Phillies were 47-58.  Ruiz had cooled to .335 at this point, but was still the team’s biggest offensive weapon.  When Ruiz came back, the Phillies were 67-71.  They’d gone 20-13 without Ruiz in the lineup and they’d close the season 14-10 with him back behind the plate.  The Phillies were a better team with Ruiz, and last year would have been much worse without some of his 1st half heroics, but his performance is not what causes the Phillies to win and lose in the big picture.

If you believe in a stat like WAR, Ruiz was worth 4.5 wins to the team last year.  So, that would be the best case scenario for this season when he comes back.  Are the Phillies 4 wins out of a playoff spot?  

 

The Phillies have a couple of players off to fine offensive starts this year.  Chase Utley looks terrific, which is great to see, and Michael Young has had some huge games –performing better than I thought he would–so far.  Even the Mayberry/Nix platoon has put up respectable numbers.  So, why doesn’t the Phillies offense score more runs?  Why don’t they look better?  

The answer is the same as it’s been for the last several seasons.  The team doesn’t hit enough home runs to compensate for their lack of ability to get on base.   That’s the best way I can boil it down.  There are other issues.  They don’t hit left-handed pitching, they function poorly with runners in scoring position and in other “situational” moments, but the bottom line is, the Phillies have a home run hitting style lineup that doesn’t hit home runs.  In 2008, Utley/Howard/Werth and Burrell hit 138 homers.  In 2009, Utley/Howard/Werth and Ibanez hit 144 homers.  What’s the ideal 3-6 for this team?  Utley/Howard/Ruiz/Michael Young?  The upside on that group, even projecting a full season for Ruiz is probably about 95 home runs.  That’s a monumental loss of power.  

The Phillies have 12 homers in their first 13 games this year, numbers that are right in line with 2012.  With the team already in the midst of a five game mini-slump, where it looks like stringing together 4 straight singles is about the only way to score, it’s obvious things from an offensive standpoint aren’t going to change that much.  It’ll help to have Ruiz back, but he probably won’t hit .330.  He’ll be better than Kratz, who has been terrible, but it won’t be enough to transform the lineup.  Not with Ryan Howard struggling, with Revere’s microscopic OBP, and with Michael Young probably coming down a bit from the heights of .370.  

So, how does this team win games?  They have to win them how they were designed to win them–by pitching like crazy.  The Phillies that won the World Series had a dangerous combination of some guys who could get on-base and a 1 through 6 that could take you deep at any time.  They really have none of that now.  They were rebuilt, in a different mold, the 4-ace mold after 2009 and since then the Phillies have won when they’ve pitched–almost exclusively.  

In 2010, the Phillies bottomed out at 48-46 on July 21st.  Shortly after that they’d fire Milt Thompson and trade for Roy Oswalt. Over the last 68 games, the Phillies went 49-19.  To be fair, the offense did produce 4.89 runs a game over that closing stretch, which is pretty good by modern NL standards, but they were averaging 4.67 runs a game when they were 48-46.  In 2011 they won 102 games while scoring 4.4 runs on average.  

So, the point I’m getting at is that the Phillies aren’t as good as they were in 2008, because they don’t hit nearly as many home runs, but they’re not as good as they were in 2010 and 2011, because they don’t pitch nearly as well.  And this team is a lot more similar to the 2011 team in makeup than the 2008 team.  Carlos Ruiz can comeback and mercifully end the run of Eric Kratz, but he’s not going to save the Phillies.  To be saved, the Phillies will have to pitch better, get that ERA back among the league leaders, iron out middle relief.  Otherwise, it’s going to be ebbs and flows, good streaks like against New York and miserable ones like what started down in Miami.  

Last year, the Phillies proved that won’t add up to a playoff spot, so something will have to change this time around.  Running down the Nationals and the torrid Braves isn’t going to be easy.  

 

 

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My 2013 Phenom Obsessions.

Stop It, Cuba.

Few posts received as little fanfare last year as my 2012 Phenom Obsessions.  For the most part, people just do not care.  I understand this.  I am alone in some of my interests.  Raw tools, regardless of whether or not they project into an actual career always get my attention.  I like to follow these players when they are younger, because while in the minor leagues I can ignore their MLB affiliation.  When they hit the big leagues, it’s more difficult to cheer for them, especially if they have Mets, or something equally unsettling across their chests.  I could have skipped this all together this season, but considering Bryce Harper’s 2-HR effort on Opening Day yesterday I decided I have a lot more insight than I originally gave myself credit for.  With that in mind, a quick recap of last year’s list:

1. Bryce Harper
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Eric Hosmer
4. Addison Reed
5. Mike Moustakas
6. Dustin Ackley
7. Mike Trout
8. Yoenis Cespedes
9. Gerrit Cole
10. Bubba Starling

There are a couple of eyesores up there.  Hosmer, Ackley and Reed, but I was in early on Cespedes–remember that.  Considering the MLB experience of those on this list after last season, the only members still eligible will be Cole and Starling.  Let’s see if they make this year’s cut:

1.  Yasiel Puig–22 yrs old, LA Dodgers AA Affiliate.  Puig is a Cuban defector who the Dodgers handed a 42 million dollar contract to and is about to start his first season in American professional baseball.  After impressing briefly at the end of last season, Puig lit up the Cactus League (.526 BA) and some thought he deserved a spot with the Dodgers before he was ultimately sent to AA.  But, let’s get to the important details.  Puig is 6’3″, 245 pounds and in terms of physical tools has people comparing him to Bo Jackson.  That is all.

2. Wil Myers–22 yrs old, Tampa Bay Rays AAA Affiliate.  After Kansas City promoted their first crop of homegrown talent (Gordon/Moustakas/Hosmer), Myers became the centerpiece of a still loaded system.  In 2012 between two levels Myers hit .317 with 37 homers.  In the off season, my beloved Royals sent Myers to Tampa Bay as the centerpiece in a deal to obtain James Shields and Wade Davis.  Not only does Tampa produce players, they poach the best from other organizations.

3.  Dylan Bundy–20 years old, Baltimore Orioles AA Affiliate.  I would have bet I had Bundy on the list last year, and I debated him in all 3 of the top spots.  Bundy has simply been overpowering in his short professional career.  At three levels last year he combined for a 2.08 ERA and struck out 119 in 103 and 2/3 innings.  Opposing batters hit .186.  Bundy appeared in a couple of games for Baltimore last year and depending on how this season goes for the Orioles, Bundy’s remaining Minor League career could be brief.

4.  Gerrit Cole–22 yrs old, Pittsburgh Pirates AAA Affiliate.  To get it out of the way early, Cole can hit 100 on the radar gun and has a prototypical power arsenal.  The Pirates top pick in 2011, Cole appears ready to join the rotation, but Pittsburgh is holding him back for some AAA seasoning and probably to delay his ML service time from starting.  Expect a 2013 debut, though, Cole was 9-7 with a 2.80 ERA over three levels last season and struck out 136 in 132+ innings.

5.  Zack Wheeler–22 yrs old, New York Mets AAA Affiliate.  I like Matt Harvey better, but Harvey probably got just enough big league action last year to be left off the list.  Wheeler came from the Giants system and is another power pitcher who can tough 97 mph and has a nasty curve ball.  He’ll probably need a 3rd pitch to develop into a front line starter, but in combination with Harvey he has people talking Gooden/Darling circa 1984.  Better than comparing them to Wilson/Pulsipher and Isiringhausen, I suppose.

6. Bubba Starling–20 yrs old, Kansas City Royals A Affiliate.  Starling was a multi-sport prep star, had offers to play D-I QB, throws 95 mph, runs like the wind–basically everything I look for.  He’s had a slow start to his career, missing out on his 2011 season by signing late and still has just 200 professional at-bats.  He did hit 10 homers in those 200 at-bats though, and had an .856 OPS.  Make or break year for Bubba.

7.  Oscar Taveras–20 years old, St. Luis Cardinals AAA Affiliate.  If we were ranking on MLB potential alone, Taveras might be at the top of this list.  His association with the Cardinals, even on a Minor League level, is just hard for me to overlook.  A Domincan outfielder with huge offensive potential, Taveras will be in St. Louis sometime in 2013.  When a guy hits .321 with 23 homers and a .953 OPS, there isn’t much more for him to prove in Minor League Baseball.

8.  Anthony Rendon 22 yrs old, Washington Nationals AAA Affiliate.  Rendon got off to a hot start in Nationals camp, making people wonder whether he had a chance to make the Nationals this season.  But, as a 3B Rendon is still blocked by Ryan Zimmerman and with only 300 professional at-bats, it’s likely Rendon needs more time.  Rendon doesn’t have many gaudy stats to throw around, but he was one of the best college hitters in recent memory at Rice and is the remaining jewel of Washington’s farm system.

9.  Travis D’Arnaud 24 yrs old,  New York Mets AAA Affiliate.  D’Arnaud was a Phillies prospect who was traded away in the Roy Halladay deal and then was sent to the Mets for R.A. Dickey.  Strange to see a big-time prospect moved around like this, but D’Arnaud broke out in 2011 and had good numbers last season before being felled by a knee injury.  There is always a shortage of good catchers and catchers who can hit are even more rare.  If D’Arnaud gets anywhere near last year’s .333/.595/.975 line, the Mets will have trouble keeping him in the minors.

10.  Albert Almora, 18 yrs old, Chicago Cubs, A Affiliate.  Almora was the sixth pick in last year’s draft.  Started his pro career off by hitting .321 across two levels in 140 at-bats.  Almora is clearly a long way from Chicago, but he projects as an elite defensive outfielder with polished hitting tools.  I’m very curious about whether or not Theo Epstein is going to be able to turn around the Cubs.  If he’s still around when Almora makes his MLB debut, he’s probably headed in the right direction.

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Phillies Prepare for Wild Card Run.

Charlie Reacts to a Successful Double Switch.

I’ve always said that hockey season officially starts the day after the Super Bowl.  I think I’m adding to that today.  Baseball starts the day after your bracket blows up.  When I picked Indiana to make a run I was looking at the talent on their team and ignoring the Crean factor.  When I saw Indiana struggle with Temple, I knew it was only a matter of time before I continued my 0-for my lifetime bracket streak.  Syracuse put me out of my misery quickly last night.  It was a pretty disappointing late night of basketball.  But, that’s all right, because the Phillies are kicking off their On-Deck series today, a little money grab before heading to Atlanta to start the actual season.  

It’s been an up and down spring for the Phillies.  A lot of real positive signs mixed in with some familiar concerns.  Considering most baseball seasons start with hope, I think the Phillies have the full attention of their fans, though that sellout streak loyalty is probably a bit more tenuous.  Should we start with the good news or the bad?  I’ll butter you up first…

What the Phillies Have Going for Them:

1.  Cole Hamels.  The fact that Hamels is now clearly the ace of this staff is probably a good and a bad thing, but his presence should be a stabilizing force for this team, much like it was last season.  Durable and still in his prime Cole makes the Phillies favorites most times he takes the mound and that will include Opening Day in Atlanta.  I’d expect another fringe Cy Young candidate season from Hamels.  

2.  Health of Utley and Howard.  Ryan Howard was a shell of himself last year and Chase Utley hadn’t gone through Spring Training since 2010.  With both of them healthy and properly prepared for the season it’s likely we’ll see a return to more “typical” numbers.  I’m expecting a good year out of Utley and if Howard can get some protection in the lineup and remain as selective he’s been this spring, then he’ll be back among the league leaders in home runs.  

3.  Back End of the Bullpen.  Even with all the struggles the Phillies had last year you could point to faulty bullpen work as what really killed their chances.  The Phillies were terrible in the 8th inning and the addition of Mike Adams should help in that regard.  I expect Papelbon to have another solid year and when the Phillies get to the 8th with a lead this year they should be much better off than they were in 2012.  

4.  Ben Revere in Center.  I’m not sure yet how Revere’s going to hit, though he appears to have a bit more pop than advertised.  Not home run pop, but move the ball out of the infield pop.  More importantly, Revere should anchor the defense in centerfield and maybe people will finally realize that Shane Victorino wasn’t all that great out there.  Revere will be under pressure to cover up some deficiencies in the corner spots and I think he’ll be up to the task.  

5. Dom Brown becomes an everyday player.  Brown has had a huge spring, and appears confident and comfortable.  The yo-yo Brown has been on the last few years certainly eroded his progress, but this latest fresh start seems to have made a difference.  I don’t think he’s a star, but he should be able to reasonably hold down left field and he looks a lot less lost defensively.  

What Could Hold the Phillies Back:

1.  Roy Halladay and the Halladay Domino Effect.  Halladay went 4 and 2/3 yesterday over 90-some pitches and pronounced himself ready for game 2 in Atlanta.  If you asked me a week ago, I would have said I was fairly sure Halladay would be on the DL by May.  Have I backed off that?  I’m not sure, but I’m expecting a rough year for Roy and I wouldn’t be surprised if it started in Atlanta.  If Halladay is hurt, or isn’t on form, it presses Kendrick, Lannan and possibly a 6th starter into more significant roles.  The rotation could go from a strength to a weakness.  

2.  Michael Young.  I’m not a Michael Young fan at this point in his career.  I think he’s going to wear down over the course of a season, be a burden on defense and show little power.  His approach, and “professionalism” are probably still intact, but Young is on the downside of his career.  People say, oh if he hits 15 homers (a stretch) and knocks in 75–I’d take that.  Well, you forget how bad that will look stretched over 162 games.  Third base remains a weakness on this team.  

3.  Middle Relief.  Stutes is a gasoline can (unfortunate, because I liked the guy), the other young guys (DeFratus/Aumont/Diekman) have potential but aren’t proven, Durbin’s best days are behind him and Bastardo has always run hot and cold.  If the rotation is weakened, this year’s 7th inning could be last year’s 8th.  

4.  The Bench.  Another consistent problem.  When Ruiz comes back the bench is going to be something like: Kratz, Mayberry, Galvis, Frandsen and Nix?  Yeah, that’s terrible.  

Bottom Line:  87 Wins

I think the health of the lineup and the addition of Mike Adams make the Phillies a better team than they were last year, but remember for much of the season they were a good bit below .500 before rallying at the end.  The NL East is top heavy, and there is some real depth in the National League, so piling up wins against lesser opponents (a Phillies dynasty hallmark) might not be as easy as it once was.  Barring unforeseen circumstances, though, the Phillies should be in contention, though I don’t see how they compete with Washington for the division.  And, while Atlanta has a suspect rotation and now a banged up setup man, if you believe in the Phillies’ spring offensive numbers, then Atlanta’s should be terrifying:  The Braves clubbed 49 homers and averaged almost 6 runs per game this spring.  

Other MLB Predictions:  

National League Playoff Teams:  Washington, Cincinnati, San Francisco Atlanta* and Milwaukee*

American League Playoff Teams:  Tampa Bay, Detroit, Anaheim, Toronto* and Texas*

World Series Prediction:  Anaheim over Cincinnati

NL MVP:  Joey Votto

NL Cy Young:  Clayton Kershaw

AL MVP:  Evan Longoria (Since I finally got Cabrera right last year)

AL Cy Young: Josh Johnson

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Enjoy Opening Day, everyone.  It’s a better holiday than Easter–that’s for sure.  

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Roy Halladay’s Mysterious(?) Lack of Velocity.

The Downside of Jugs.

The Phillies had themselves a decent spring going.  They weren’t dominating teams and, in fact, a loss today dropped them to 7-9, but outside of that meaningless number there were positives.  Ryan Howard and Dom Brown are both hitting a ton.  In the case of Howard, he’s back on two legs.  For Brown, there appears to be a new comfort level–even in the OF.  There’s Michael Young’s .300+ average and the first looks at Ben Revere have been almost all positive.  For a team with lineup questions, there was reason to be optimistic.  

What Brown’s emergence and all the runs scored have eclipsed is an up and down performance by the pitching staff.  Outside of Mike Adams the setup relievers have been shaky.  Stutes, Diekman, DeFratus, Durbin–which of these guys wants a job?  And the last place you’d expect to have worry would be the starting rotation, but each starter has had their bad outing.  Those were written off for the most part until Tuesday.  

When Cole Hamels gives up 12 hits to the Dominican Republic, it can be explained as Cole “working on his off speed pitches.”  Especially when Hamels bounces back nicely.  But, for Roy Halladay, Spring Training has become very important.  Last year his spring troubles set the groundwork for a dreadful May and a trip to the DL.  So, from day 1 this year, it’s been HOW HARD IS ROY THROWING?  Aside from some very early readings, Halladay’s velocity has remained down.  But, that was tempered by the presence of his signature “late movement,” and some good outings.  On Tuesday that all changed.  Not only could Roy not locate, but according to scouts he was somewhere between 84 and 87 mph on his fastball.  That’s not good.  

The Phillies have a lot of talent, but it’s built upon a very brittle foundation of health.  You could argue that Halladay’s health is most important to this team.  It was his injury last year that preempted the Phils losing their grip on the season. With Halladay in top form the Phillies have one of the best rotations in baseball.  Without him, they have a rotation that includes Kyle Kendrick, John Lannan and Aaron Cook(?).  A significant difference.  And, if Halladay, a player who keeps himself in supreme condition, can’t keep himself healthy what hope do the rest of Philly’s aging stars have?  

The question is whether this is a one day battle against “dead arm,” or if we’re looking at the page being turned in Halladay’s career.  Is he a guy that will now run hot and cold?  

In 2002, at age 36 Greg Maddux had a 2.62 ERA.  The next year he blew up to 3.96 and then was never below 4.00 for the rest of his career.  But, during those latter seasons, you’d still see flashes of Maddux’s old dominance.  A shutout, a 100 pitch complete game.  Is that where the Phillies are at with Roy?  

What interests me is the reaction to Halladay’s struggles.  From day one there has been an undercurrent to this story, a small fraction of people who believe Roy is facing a more serious medical condition.  Today’s start will give them even more fuel for speculation.  So, is he fighting a legitimate arm injury?  Is something else wrong?  Or, is he just an aging baseball player?  It seems that Halladay’s impeccable workout regimen and dominance have really made people believe he’s indestructible.  

Halladay’s going to be 36 in a couple of months.  He’s thrown almost 2.700 regular season innings.  And, lets not forget the crazy (for today’s standards) workload of 2010, where Roy threw 250 regular season innings and then made two playoff starts.  Was it 2010 that did him in?  The conspiracy theorists seem to think that Halladay couldn’t “lose it” all at once like this.  Well, I gave you the example of Greg Maddux.  How about some others?

1. At age 36 Jim Palmer went 15-5 and finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young race.  He won five games the rest of his career.  

2. At age 36 Tom Seaver was 2nd in the NL Cy Young race and had a 2.54 ERA.  The next season he was 5-13 with 5.50 ERA and never was the same.  

3. At age 33, Dave Stewart won 22 games and had a 2.56 ERA.  The next year he was 11-11 with a 5.18 ERA.  

4. At age 37 Jack Morris won 21 games (albeit with a 4+ ERA).  The next year his ERA ballooned to 6.19.  

Am I cherry picking some stats and guys?  A bit, but these are just names that popped into my mind.  Power pitchers, guys with great work ethics, and they all lost it pretty quick.  Some (like Steve Carlton) held on a bit longer and others (like Rick Sutcliffe) were in their early thirties, but the quick decline seems to be a characteristic of pitchers.  

What I think we might be forgetting is how steroid use momentarily made us forget how players age and decline.  OK, Roger Clemens pitched brilliantly well into his late thirties and early forties, but did that become the standard?  Did we forget that Clemens might not have been doing it cleanly?  

Aside from Clemens and Nolan Ryan, the occasional knuckleballer and Jamie Moyer I’m not aware of pitchers who didn’t take a severe dip in their late thirties.  They usually either break down, lose their stuff, or both.  Is this what is happening to Roy Halladay?  I guess we don’t know, but for now I’m still thinking and hoping that the conspiracy theorists are stretching to explain something that is actually very easy to explain.  

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Spring Training Facts and Fictions.

First Time in 30 years?

I was going to start off by talking about the feisty Phillies, rolling along on the wings of Ryan Howard and Dom Brown, but then the Phillies got hammered by the Dominican Republic today to the tune of 15-2.  The DR team had 28 hits (not a typo), but the good news is they have a pretty stacked lineup and the game doesn’t count toward official Grapefruit league standings.  Of course, Grapefruit League stats don’t mean too much anyway, so what to make of some teams and some players getting off to torrid or ice cold starts this spring?  Opening day is only four weeks away are we getting a preview of things to come?  

Some Spring Training Facts:  

1. Ryan Howard’s 1.215 OPS.  Now, Howard won’t be hitting .370 this year, or slugging .815, but it’s clear that the Phillies’ first baseman is no longer hobbled by his Achilles injury.  His health is easily the best news coming out of Clearwater, because a healthy Ryan Howard is going to produce, even if it comes with a ton of strikeouts and a middling average.  

2. Mike Moustakas (.579) and Eric Hosmer (.400) batting averages.  The Royals are scoring a bunch of runs, and producing some gaudy offensive numbers–just like last spring.  But, these two hitters are their young core.  Hosmer had a brutal sophomore campaign, but expect a big bounce back.  If Moustakas continues to develop, the Royals have two middle of the order bats until those arbitration years run out.  

3.  Darin Ruf’s .800 fielding percentage.  It wouldn’t be possible for an outfielder to have this fielding percentage over a whole year.  At least, I don’t think it would.  If you botch one of every five plays, you don’t last long in the lineup.  The point is, Ruf cannot play LF.  CAN NOT.  He should be headed to AAA to get some repetitions.  Decision made easier by the fact he’s not hitting.  

4. No NL Team more than two games over .500.  There are a lot of good teams in the National League, but if you want to talk great teams it’s hard to find one.  The Nationals probably look the best on paper, but when the NL playoffs start, it’s going to be wide open.  I could see at least seven teams winning the NL, and yes, I put the Phillies at the back end of that line.  

5.  Trevor Bauer 2.57 ERA.  Bauer has a high maintenance reputation and Arizona gave up on him pretty quickly by shipping him off to the Indians this winter.  I think Bauer ends up being a steal in that deal.  I’d look for a solid, if up and down year with some major highs.  

6.  Yankees 3-7 Record.  The Blue Jays are now the darling of the AL East and implied with that is the Yankees and the Red Sox will be down.  The Yanks are playing the part this spring and you look at their roster and wonder how much they will struggle this year.  The Curtis Granderson injury didn’t help.  

Spring Training Fictions:  

1.  Royals 10-0 Record.  The Royals are all-in this year.  They shipped off mega-prospect Wil Myers to Tampa for Wade Davis and James Shields.  I think Kansas City will finally take a big step in their rebuilding this year, but they’re not quite ready to dominate the American League.  A wild-card seems like their high-end potential.  

2. Mariners 10-1 Record.  The Mariners have Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay in camp.  That’s telling.  I like Felix Hernandez, but this team is still going to struggle mightily to score runs.  Maybe they should start playing their home games in Phoenix.  

3.  Brandon Belt 1.348 OPS.  Belt has been a perpetual tease.  He’s torn up AAA, he had a huge spring last season and he’s doing it again this March.  Some might think Belt is finally poised to break out, but I’m not sure he’s ever going to produce at the MLB level like he has against inferior competition.  He may hit for a decent average, but in SF, I don’t think those power numbers are ever going to come.  

4.  Ryan Rayburn 4 HRs.  Rayburn is a Spring Training power god.  He clubbed six bombs last year and everyone was primed for a huge season in Detroit’s stacked lineup.  What happened?  Rayburn hit .191 with 1 bomb in 200+ at-bats.  Don’t get your hopes up, Cleveland.  

5.  Johnathan Papelbon 43.20 ERA.  Been a rough go so far for Papelbon, who was scratched from today’s slaughter thanks to an illness.  Papelbon claims to be “working on his delivery,” which is right out of the closer’s book of cliches.  The most reliable bullpen piece for the Phillies last year should get things under control by the regular season.  At least expect a single digit ERA.  

6. Angels and Reds combined 4-19 record.  If I was picking today, I might take both of these teams to make the playoffs in 2013.  I like Cincinatti’s lineup and if Aroldis Chapman can make the transition to starter (at least for the 1st part of the season) it will really bolster their rotation.  The Angels have an incredible outfield, Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup and a pretty deep rotation.  Should get them off to a better start than 2-8.  

 

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Spring Training Cometh.

Did You Know There Was A Logo?

For the first time since 2007 the Phillies arrive in Spring Training coming off a season where they failed to make the post-season.  The team that arrived that season was the polar opposite of the team the fans will watch closely this Spring.  The 2007 Phillies were young.  They were an offensive juggernaut.  Their starting rotation was a train wreck, the bullpen a hodgepodge.  Some select highlights from that 2007 team:  

1. Jimmy Rollins (Age 28) played all 162 games, won MVP
2. Ryan Howard (Age 27) was coming off a .425 OBP season in 2006 (.295 OBP in 2012)
3. Aaron Rowand (Age 29) hit .309 (.374 OBP) with 29 homers in centerfield
4. Abraham Nunez (Age 31) was the oldest everyday starter
5. Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton were double-digit winners

This year the Phillies arrive in Clearwater an old team.  Veteran would be a kinder way of describing the team’s average age, but they’ll trot out five regulars who are well into their 30s.  A bigger concern would be the general offensive downturn that’s been hindering the team since 2010.  When you look at the roster turnover, it’s easy to see the problem.  The best players haven’t been able to stay on the field and the Phillies have consistently replaced high OBP players with low OBP players.  One of the debates this Spring will be whether or not to lead off Ben Revere, who had a career high OBP of .333 in 2012.  That career year would have ranked him 7th among the eight everyday players on the 2007 Phillies.  His 29 walks would have ranked dead last.  

It’s safe to say the Phillies’ offense will come nowhere close to the numbers posted in 2007, and that shouldn’t necessarily be the goal.  The 2007 team was flawed in many areas, but it’s interesting to look at how much things have changed and how the philosophy of the team has changed during what is considered a singular era of success.  The team that started the streak of playoff appearances had almost nothing in common with the team that ended the streak in 2012.  So, how will the Phillies get back to the post-season, start another streak?  

There is a notion around baseball that the Phillies have fallen way behind in their own division and in the National League.  Some projections like the Nationals and Braves in their own division to win close to 100 games.  If that happens, it’ll be almost impossible for the Phillies to make the post-season when they’ll still have to deal with St. Louis, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Los Angeles and who knows what other teams might make a run.  

To keep things from being entirely pessimistic, I’ll say that I think the overall love for the National League may have gone a bit overboard.  I do think the Nationals are easily the best team in the NL East, but from there things get a bit more cloudy.  The Braves, for example, have a lot of questions.  They are unproven in their rotation.  They sacrificed three of their best lineup components from 2012 (Chipper, Prado and Bourn) and while they replaced them, it’s a lot of new pieces that need to come together.  They also took a Phillies-esque approach to those holes.  OBP gone, and replaced with more power and more strikeouts.  So, while I would probably trade rosters with Atlanta if I were a Phillies fan, I hardly see them as a lock to win 95 games.  

So, if you can squint your eyes a little bit, see a scenario where 90 wins might get the Phillies into the playoffs, perhaps things become a bit more feasible.  But if every team this time of year has questions, the Phillies have huge issues that need to be addressed–much of them surrounding the health of the team’s stars.  Larry Bowa said yesterday it would take a stars aligned type of season for the Phillies to make the playoffs–what stars must align?  A sampling…

1. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard healthy and productive for 145+ games (last happened–2009)
2. Roy Halladay must be, at worst, the best #3 starter in baseball
3. Michael Young must bounce back from a poor 2012 and prove he can play 3B
4. Mike Adams and the rest of the crowded bullpen have to resolve crippling 7th/8th inning issues from 2012
5. Someone, or some combination of players must adequately fill the corner OF spots

You could go on and on.  There are people out there who think none of the above will happen.  You can easily make that argument.  Others believe that the Phillies will be healthy, have three aces and solid bullpen.  Which scenario plays out?  I have no idea.  It creates a scenario where Phillies fans must actually pay attention to what is happening in the Spring.  

If Roy Halladay’s velocity is down this year–that’s an issue.  If Ryan Howard is still limping, if Chase Utley needs days off, if Ruf and Brown don’t hit?  None of that can be brushed off as, “just Spring Training.”  Not this year.  So, while in some ways this is least distinguished Phillies’ team to arrive in Clearwater in some time, it should be one of the more interesting Springs.  Position battles, veterans trying to prove themselves, Charlie trying to keep his hands on his job–there will be a lot going on.  

It’s all part of a new era of baseball where the Blue Jays are favorites in the AL East, the Astros are in the American League.  Get used to it.  

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Who Is Watching the Self-Appointed Watchmen?

Maybe That 8th Cy Young or MVP Would Have Been Enough.

Among my group of high school friends we have this joke where we say, “I don’t know how you do it, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year…not funny.”  It’s something like that anyway, and the baseball writers have given me a similar feeling.  I don’t know how they do it, but every year they make the voting process a bigger clusterhump than it was the year before.  What happened this year, with no players getting elected (steroid users or not) left me disappointed and ready to start ignoring the Baseball Hall of Fame completely.  I never wanted to get to this point.  

I used to appreciate the exclusive nature of the “Hall.”  While you could debate the criteria of other Halls of Fame, it was always known that Cooperstown was only for the true greats.  Sure, a player or two might slip through the cracks (thank you Veterans Committee), but for the most part very good was left on the outside and the plaques were given to deserving players.  Part of the reason for this, I believe, is baseball association with measurable numbers.  The benchmarks, 300 wins, 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, in a way they made voting easier.  

But in recent years we’ve undergone two major changes.  First, the numbers that we value have shifted. A win is now considered by many to be one of the worst measures of a pitcher.  And, working in concert with that is the inflated statistics of the steroid era.  The historic benchmarks were made less significant by 60 home run seasons, etc.  So voters are now left more to their own devices.  They formulate their own criteria, judge how much they want to weigh the “morality” clause and voting has become a complete mess.  

I honestly don’t even know how to fix to the process at this point.  Current Hall of Famers can’t vote because all I have to do is point to the work of the veteran’s committee to shoot down that notion.  Some Hall of Famers would care too much who joins them, and others would not care enough.  

What really needs to happen is the voters need to re-earn their right to vote.  You know how some people think you should re-take your driver’s test when you hit a certain age?  We need that type of process for the voters, because some are taking their role too seriously.  Some, like whoever voted for Aaron Sele this year, are not taking it seriously enough.  And others still are using the wrong criteria.  

Baseball really needs to take back control of their Hall of Fame as well.  It is baseball who doesn’t allow the writers to elect Pete Rose.  Rose is banned, and so the writers couldn’t vote him in even if they wanted to.  Rose, incidentally, would probably do better in the vote than Bonds and Clemens.  But, the point is, writers have taken it upon themselves to decide who is eligible and who isn’t, and that shouldn’t be the case.  Baseball was played from 1988-2004.  Certain players were the best of that era, but it appears the majority of them will never make the Hall of Fame.  

What I guess is most troubling is that the solution appears so simple, there is a logical way to go about this, isn’t there?  Not all steroid users were created equal.  The problem comes from the writers who will never vote for anyone who was even associated with PEDs.  Too much respect for the game, they’ll say.  They don’t want things to be tarnished.  Never tarnished.  Every major sport in the country is tarnished beyond recognition.  If it’s not PEDs, it’s racial inequality, class discrimination, rampant cocaine use, crooked officials, the list goes on and on.  For some reason, the baseball writers have latched onto the steroid issue as where they want to make their last stand. 

I think the reason for this is many of them probably feel embarrassed by their myth making.  If you go read columns about Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa in 1998 it was all Paul Bunyan references and glowing, poetic descriptions of forearm size.  They took these players and made them bigger than the PEDs ever could and when the truth started to come out, I think there was a sense of, how did no one see this?  Were the writers accomplices?  Did they watch guys inject each other and then go write another 500 words on “country strength?”  

So I think many writers just want to make sure there is no egg left on their face.  I didn’t stand for any of this, and I’m going to prove it by not voting for anyone!  Of course, this is an incredibly narcissistic opinion.  Another trait common to the BBWAA.  They fail to realize that the average fan doesn’t care about their past work, or their role in the steroid era, they just want a Hall of Fame they can understand and not the tragic mess it has become.  

***

An Approximation of How You Should Vote if You had a Brain:  

Craig Biggio: YES (68.2% this year)

Biggio had 3,060 hits and that’s his best number.  But, he also had over 400 steals, won 4 gold gloves and even hit 290 homers.  It appears Biggio will eventually get in, probably next year, so we won’t make too big a deal of his being left out.

Jack Morris:  NO (67.7% this year)

Morris is another guy is probably going to eventually get in, but his plight is a nod to what used to be wrong with Hall of Fame voting–guys slowly changing their mind.   Morris is hurt by his last two years, during which he threw a pretty terrible 300 innings, but he was excellent in the post-season.  If you want to put him in, OK, but he’d be in the bottom 10% of pitchers enshrined. 

Jeff Bagwell:  YES (59.6% this year)

Bagwell came up just short of 500 homers and his numbers don’t look that impressive compared to some of his peers, but the advanced metrics all love Bagwell and he was a better all around player than you might remember.  A .297 career hitter with over 200 steals.  

Mike Piazza:  YES (57.8% this year)

Piazza’s numbers as a catcher can’t be ignored.  He was terrible defensively, but aside from the few very elite catchers, his offensive stats dwarf most HOF catchers.  

Tim Raines:  NO (52.2% this year)

Raines is so very close.  His case is made mostly by advanced stats.  His WAR and other numbers paint his career in a much better light than traditional counting stats, though Raines did have 800 steals and scored over 1,500 runs.  You could probably convince me to change my mind on Raines with a compelling argument.

Curt Schilling: YES (38.8% this year)

Schilling represents a lot of what went wrong this year.  He got more votes than Clemens and Bonds, but is still way short partially because he won only 216 games.  So, sometimes the old benchmarks matter, sometimes they don’t.  Schilling was a better regular season and post-season pitcher (11-2 2.23 ERA) than Jack Morris so if Morris is getting in eventually, so will Schill.  Didn’t play on many good teams until he was in his mid-30s, over 3,000 strikeouts, he’s in–just don’t invest in his video game company.

Roger Clemens:  YES:  (37.6% this year)

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of jump Clemens gets in year two.  That has been something that the steroid guys haven’t gotten.  Jack Morris started at 30 percent, now he’s up to almost 70.  If Clemens doesn’t get a big bump in 2014, he likely won’t get in.  Same could be said for Bonds.  Clemens won 7 Cy Young awards, 3 before you could suspect him of PEDs and a MVP during that stretch as well.  Even if you think everything after Boston was a total fraud, you’re talking about a guy who would have had 250+ wins, 3,500 Ks, 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP.  

Barry Bonds:  YES (36.2% this year)

If you go by just the numbers, Bonds is one of the three best hitters ever.  His three top comps on baseball reference are Ruth, Mays and Aaron.  Ok, then.  He probably should have won 4 straight MVPs from ’89 to ’92, as it was he won three (Terry Pendleton??? bahhaha) and ended up with seven total.  He hit 70 homers, was once walked 232 times in a season and once had a 30HR/50 steal season.  He was a Gold Glove outfielder and if he pulled a Sandy Koufax and retired in 1999, he’d probably be in the Hall of Fame.  

Other No’s:  Dale Murphy, Edgar Martinez, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa.  

Too short a prime for Murphy, too much DH for Martinez, tough road for closers, Trammell is Hall of Very Good and McGwire and Sosa were 1-trick PED machines.  

Other Yes (My Aaron Sele Vote):  Larry Walker

Coors Field will probably keep Walker out, but his inflated home/road splits obscure the fact that he did everything well. He was an elite RF, ran the bases beautifully and is another advanced metric darling.  Three straight years hit .366, .363, .379.  Pretty sure some of those games were on the road.  Seven gold gloves, 3 batting titles, MVP.  

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Hot Stove Check-In.

Where’s the Money Truck?

So, it’s been a bit of a strange baseball off-season.  The market has exploded.  Two years, 15 million for Joe Blanton anyone?  But, the hands down best position player can’t seem to land that mega-deal.  I’m sure teams are concerned about Josh Hamilton’s history, about his injuries, but at least he’s still Josh Hamilton.  The Giants weren’t concerned about Angel Pagan being mediocre for most of his career when they handed him 40 million.  Will some team come in at the last minute, Prince Fielder style?  Probably, but for now we wait.

Hamilton’s lack of a deal is holding up the whole outfield market, which is of particular concern in Philadelphia, where they added one outfielder, but still need another.  Are the Phillies players for Hamilton?  They have been cutting that payroll down a bit since the last trade deadline, but with built-in salary escalators and the Cole Hamels deal–there isn’t as much money there as you might think.  

I’m still of the opinion that the Phillies are going to add another corner OF (not Hamilton), a depth starting pitcher, and some bullpen help.  That’ll be it.  I really think the Phillies are trying to patch it together for 1-year and depending on how 2013 goes, they choose their direction.  They can shed Utley, Halladay after 2013 if they want too and that’s why Young is a good fit from their perspective, because he’s gone after this season and in a best case scenario provides some of the things they need.  Speaking of which…

On The Young Deal:

Michael Young was a true .300 hitter in his prime with good on-base skills and decent power for a middle infielder.  But, he’s going to be 36 and is coming off his worst year.  For the stat geeks out there, Young’s (-2.4 WAR) was among the worst in baseball last year.  He’s terrible at 3B when he plays there, so that’s a concern too.  The Phillies are hoping Young can bounce back, hit close to .300 and be what Placido Polanco was in 2010–with a bit more pop.  Bottom line, the Phillies still will lack power at 3B and if Young is in a decline that started last year, they’re going to have a disastrous situation at third.  Kevin Frandsen cannot play every day. 

Young also gives the Phillies a very old and fragile infield.  The chances that Howard, Utley, Young and Rollins all play 150 games is miniscule.  There is a better chance they all end up on the DL at some point.  But, like I said, this is a 1-year move, for a team that’s got a 1-year mentality for now.  With all these veterans, you must have winning now as the priority, but 2012 I think at least prepared the Phillies for the possibility that the window could already be closed.  So, while they make some short term decisions, there is a small trimming of payroll and an eye to the future with the Ben Revere trade.

On the Revere Trade:

Phillies fans need to get over the loss of Vance Worley.  He was an underdog, which people loved, but he’s a replaceable piece.  Trevor May is an unknown commodity.  It’s what the Phils got back that I have some concerns about.  It’ll be great having a center fielder with Revere’s ball skills out there on defense, but he’s a bit of a mystery offensively.  He’s one of the faster players in the league, but hasn’t learned how to get on base enough to be a real weapon.  He also has no power, not even accidentally run into one, Michael Martinez power.  The good news is, Revere is young enough that he could develop.  At least they’ve gotten past the whole, “Let’s take a 33-year old guy with a career .330 OBP and hope he becomes a .370 OBP guy.”  At worst, you have a cheap, defensive prodigy in center for a few years.  If they need to build up the offense starting in 2014, it’ll be a lot easier with Revere’s contract in center than Michael Bourn’s.  

Elsewhere Around Baseball:

The Dodgers are Throwing Around Money:  Do we have a running tally on LA’s payroll?  Zack Greinke, Ryu Hyun-jin and it’s easy to forget that the Dodgers added the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford at last year’s deadline.  And there was that 20-million per extension they handed Matt Kemp.  Ruben Amaro is jealous of this level of spending.  Good news for the Phillies–the Hamels contract looks pretty good.  Bad news–the Dodgers are completely loaded if they can make the pieces fit.

The Slumbering Yankees and Red Sox:  Are we getting used to the Sox and Yankees not being mentioned with every free agent?  Seriously, did you ever think there would be a day when the Yankees weren’t suitors for Josh Hamilton?  The Yankees are cutting that payroll.  I honestly think they’ve been supplanted by the Dodgers as the team who could always sign anyone, for any amount.  Boston is in rebuilding mode, good for them for not throwing money at a stop-gap just for the sake of spending.  

Those crafty Rays:  The Rays traded away “Big Game” James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals over the weekend.  The Royals are making a push to make the playoffs this year or the next while they have control over their young nucleus.  The price was steep.  Four prospects, highlighted by the phenom, Wil Myers who hit 37 homers between AA and AAA last year at the age of 21.  He appeared to fit right into KC’s outfield with Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain, but KC decided it couldn’t go another year with shoddy starting pitching.  It’s a coup for Tampa, considering their starting pitching depth and for KC to get their money’s worth, they’ll need Shields to be an ace and a lot of growth from Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas.  If KC doesn’t make the post-season with Shields and Myers becomes a star, this one could haunt Kansas City for years.  

 

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Need Help Studying For Your Finals?

Call Chooch.

While Phillies fans sit around waiting for the team to sign two outfielders, a third baseman, and about six relief pitchers, the 2012 season managed to get a little bit worse.  One of the few bright spots, Carlos Ruiz’s career year, has now been tainted by a positive test for Adderall.  It’s Ruiz’s 2nd positive test for a stimulant (the first positive is not reported) and it will cost the catcher the first 25 games of the 2013 season.  Considering this is a 2nd offense for Ruiz, and the NFL hands out 4-game (1/4 of the season suspensions for Adderall), I suppose the punishment could have been worse.  Missing a month is something the team should theoretically be able to overcome, but the fans might fall out of love with Eric Kratz by May 1st.  

The use of stimulants in baseball is nothing new.  Before the steroid era was the “greenie” era when, depending on who you listen to, uppers were as readily available as gum and seeds in the clubhouse.  The issue with stimulants is that some are legal to use and some are not.  Also, it’s tougher to draw that straight line to improved performance.  When a guy throws on 30 lbs of muscle in an off-season, the benefit is right there in front of your eyes.  But if a guy is on a stimulant, the differences might not be as noticeable to the naked eye.  

There’s also the question of where to draw the line.  Over 100 players in MLB are allowed to use Adderall due to ADHD or some other medical diagnosis.  So, has Adderall become the medical marijuana of MLB and other professional sports?  Is every player prescribed the drug taking it for legitimate reasons?  And if not Adderall, what other stimulants will players gravitate toward?  Is amphetamine use a byproduct of stricter testing for steroids and other known performance enhancing drugs?

What makes Ruiz’s case unique is that the catcher is coming a career year.  A year that far eclipsed anything he had ever done offensively.  Ruiz went from a guy known for a couple of solid post-seasons to a legitimate 1st-half NL MVP candidate.  He led the league in hitting for a time.  He carried a hobbled Phillies offense.  There was also a shift in physical appearance.  Ruiz looked stronger.  He spoke of a different off-season program, but now everyone is left to question how much of Ruiz’s career year was legitimate?  I’m not sure PEDs ever made a .270 hitter a .330 hitter, but Ruiz did have more power and there was a much more consistent level to his at-bats.  

I also remember several times during the year where announcers would talk about the “old” Ruiz.  The player who was prone to slumps.  His swing gets long, they’d say.  Maybe he gets a little run down.  That wasn’t happening in 2012.  At the time the success was attributed to the increased physical fitness and confidence.  Now?  Who knows?  

I have no idea how much Ruiz benefited from the Adderall use, but because you can see a significant spike in his 2012 numbers, he may end up becoming a poster boy for those who want stricter rules and guidelines regarding stimulant use in professional sports.  And while I don’t think Ruiz’s big season is due entirely to Adderall, there is the fact that this was a second positive test.  Carlos knew what he was doing.  There had to be something to it, otherwise why risk another positive test and a suspension?  He must have felt like he needed it last year, or in the coming year as he tried to build toward one last contract?  

The Phillies won’t be looking for a replacement for Ruiz.  They have too many other holes to fill.  Not having their starting catcher will be another obstacle for a team suddenly overwhelmed by them, but I think most sensible Phillies fans were expecting some type of regression to the mean for Ruiz regardless.  At least they should be hoping that the front office wasn’t counting on Ruiz as a middle of the order bat for 2013.  

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