What if the Pacers Win?

Remember When LeBron was The One Who Disappeared*?

*Never Actually Disappeared. 

Could we get to the point where we feel sorry for LeBron?  Wasn’t it supposed to be EASIER than this?  The Big Three, the 2012 Title, the obscene 2nd half record this year–the NBA Playoffs was supposed to be a coronation.  Once Russell Westbrook went down and Derek Rose didn’t appear out of the fog on a white horse for Chicago this was supposed to be a done deal.  Maybe Miami would drop a game here or there–boredom–but go ahead and book that 2nd straight title.  Then, something strange happened.  Perhaps a more astute NBA eye could fill you in, but here’s my opinion–the rest of the Heat, the non-Lebrons–are terrible.  Just a putrid collection of slop that has some people wondering whether LeBron actually had more help back in Cleveland.  

I find myself watching this series with the Pacers out of hate.  I didn’t realize how easy the Heat were to hate until I actually watched them play.  They have Battier?  And Birdman?  And Juwan Howard rallying the bench?  That’s an uncanny collection of players that are easy to hate.  Hating on LeBron has become a waste of time for a number of reasons, but don’t overlook the target rich environment that is the Heat bench.  

Along with being easy to dislike, the Heat also don’t look that dominant.  They have stretches where they shoot the ball well and are able to pull away from Indiana, but this is the Pacers.  They’re a “nice” team.  Not exactly the dynasty Bulls.  I’ve never seen a team waste more possessions than Indiana, or at least not a team in a conference final.  Every other possession they have the shot clock is down at 3 seconds and they still have no plan.  They take awful 3s, they miss dunks and bunnies, Lance Stephenson can turn the ball over at any moment.  I watch the Pacers and I see a team that shouldn’t be good enough to stretch Miami out this much.  The collective will of all that talent should have prevailed by now.

But the talent is suddenly looking a little thin.  Wade looks a shell of himself and at times disinterested.  He’s MAYBE hinted that LeBron is touching the ball too much.  Chris Bosh has not been seen in the paint in this series.  Maybe he hoists up a three, maybe it occasionally goes in, but do not expect this 7-footer to get you a rebound.  Sure, Indiana “matches up well” against Miami, but that’s always been a euphemism for a team that doesn’t have a ton of talent and isn’t going to win the game/series.  

The Pacers definitely have a shot tonight.  They’ve played Miami even or better all year.  They could have already won four games in this series.  Roy Hibbert, despite his press conference improv issues, is a player the Heat have no answer for.  He’s bigger and more willing to play big than anyone the Heat has to offer.  If the Pacers shoot it well, if Stephenson is under control, if West can knock down some shots–this game may be out of Miami’s hands.  That in itself is hard to believe, but true.  The Heat had little hope in game six.  Miami could play pretty well and lose.  I never thought that would have been possible a few months ago.  

So, will the Pacers come through tonight?  Will they create the San Antonio/Indy finals that everyone is clamoring for?  I don’t think they’re going to pull it off.  Why?  The line.  Vegas.  The Heat are 6 to 7 point favorites and to me that just feels like a monster Heat line.  Feels like they’re going to pull it all together.  It makes no sense otherwise.  But, the Heat have been wounded.  The Spurs should be feeling pretty comfortable as they rest.  

 

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Afford Better Easter Candy With These Winners.

Needs More Easter Grass

It feels like it’s going to be another huge basketball weekend, but there are only 12 games total on the slate.  Compare that to 48 last week and we’re looking at exactly 1/4 of the hysteria.  Or, will these games be four times better than the ones from the first two rounds?  I’m leaning toward the latter scenario.  We’ve got marquee matchups and charismatic underdogs.  If you want to be surprised about what happens–don’t read on…

Thursday:  

Marquette (+5.5) vs. Miami

Who I’m Rooting For:  Marquette.  I’ve rooted for Miami exactly one time in my life.  Their football team lost to Nebraska, Penn State finished #2 in the polls, and I went back to hating.  I like certain players from Miami, but never the Hurricanes as a whole.  

The Pick:  Miami.  Marquette has been surviving with last second buckets against middle (?) tier competition?  They’re not clicking well enough to beat Miami, who isn’t showing any signs of taking teams lightly.  Unless the Hurricanes get off the plane in fatigues, take The U.  

Arizona (+3.5) vs. Ohio State.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  Arizona.  I find myself occasionally coming back to Arizona, and now that the Chase Budinger era is officially over, I think I have to take the Wildcats over Ohio State, who is currently poisoned by their association with Evan Turner.  Philadelphia thanks you for that gift.  

The Pick:  Ohio State.  Arizona beat Belmont and Harvard.  No offense to those titans of the hardwood, but this is a massive step up in competition.  Assuming the Buckeyes don’t shoot 24%, this could get awfully ugly.  

Syracuse (+5.5) vs. Indiana.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  Derek Coleman/Billy Owens/Carmelo/Sherm Douglas  vs. Damon Bailey/Steve Alford/Calbert Cheaney/Alan Henderson.  Notice that I left of McNamara and Devendorf?  I pretend like they never went to Syracuse, and with no Bob Knight to root for, I’ll go Orange.  

The Pick:  Indiana.  Crean vs. Boeheim.  Gulp.  The Temple game summed up the fears about the Hoosiers.  The Owls were playing with Khalif Wyatt and four speed bumps and still should have won that game.  Indiana allegedly is one of the best teams in the country.  That carries them to at least one more ugly win.  

LaSalle (+4) vs. Wichita St.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  LaSalle.  I saw a LaSalle grad talking this week about LaSalle finally showing some life on the basketball court.  I guess they don’t teach alums that LaSalle was once the “East Coast UCLA,” has won a National title and produced two of the better players in the history of college basketball: Tom Gola and Lionel Simmons.  Personally, I haven’t been on the LaSalle wagon since that team with the L-Train that went 29-1 during the regular season.  

The Pick: Wichita St.  Considering I didn’t pick LaSalle to escape the 1st round, there is no way I would risk jinxing the Southwest Philly Floater.  

Friday:  

Oregon (+10) vs. Louisville.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  Oregon.  Rick Pitino is the worst.  Wouldn’t it be nice if college coaches who failed in the pros didn’t automatically go straight back to premier college jobs?  

The Pick:  Louisville.  I may have drastically underestimated Louisville.  They lost to Villanova during the regular season and I assumed they were just another #1 placeholder, but perhaps not.  Oregon has run out of spite, this is a huge line, all signs point to a blowout.  

Michigan (+2) vs. Kansas.

Who I’m Rooting For:  Michigan.  I can’t remember the last time I picked the final game correctly, but I used to do it with some regularity.  The game was so predictable in the 90s.  I had Michigan/UNC in 1993.  Still recovering from that one, but in my mind the Fab Five still exists.  

The Pick:  Michigan.  The Wolverines look good.  The line is a little low.  It’s time for a #1 seed to go down.  

Michigan St. (+2) vs. Duke.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  Duke.  No one, except people who go to Duke, roots for Duke.  But, what’s so great about Michigan State?  Aren’t they like Duke just a bit less successful?  Tom Izzo doesn’t look like enough like a rodent?  Mateen Cleaves was one court slap away from being Wojo.  

The Pick:  Duke.  I was worried about Duke when they were only favored by 5 points against Creighton, but that turned into a 16-point laugher.  Unless both Plumlees get big minutes, this should be an easy winner.  

Florida Gulf Coast (+13) vs. Florida.  

Who I’m Rooting For:  FGCU.  I’m finally going to get to see “Dunk City.”  Did I miss the show?  We’ll see.  

The Pick:  FGCU.  Still getting no respect.  I guess the general consensus is FGCU is going to eventually run out of steam.  Eventually someone will crack the code that Lipscomb used to beat them during the regular season.  With plenty of time to prepare–Florida is going to be ready.  But, FGCU is pretty athletic, they have a good point guard and you know they’re going to come out with plenty of confidence.  Should be able to keep it under a dozen.  

 

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Pool Standings, Dunk City and Some Light to Moderate Gloating.

Florida Golf Coast

I missed both Florida Gulf Coast wins.  I feel a little cheated, but I saw the Dunk City video, so I think I got the general idea of what the team is about.   Florida Gulf Coast is the team of the 1st week of the tournament, and that’s one of the compelling things about how this plays out in stages.  There’s a pretty good chance FGCU will be out by this weekend and we’ll slowly forget about them, but that won’t diminish the excitement of their two wins.  They took over the Wells Fargo Center and I think the adopted underdog is one of the few positives about games at a neutral site.  A few minutes into the game on Friday, and Georgetown might as well have had USSR on their jerseys.  

Speaking of which, how about the pool standings:  

1.  The Steubenville Gambler 51 points.  Only BK could be responsible for this team name, but 51 points through two rounds is awfully gaudy.  Fifty-Five points leads all of Yahoo’s 3 million+ brackets for perspective.  Best pick was Wichita State in Sweet 16.   Has slightly unconventional MSU/Kansas Final.  

2. Lawrence Moten 47 points.  “Poetry In,” had Oregon in the Sweet 16, a solid pick, and has Louisville and Miami meeting in the final.  

3. Jamie Moyer 45 points.  Moyer has a perfect Midwest Region, which is pretty amazing, and has Indiana topping Duke in the Final.  

4. Claire’s Champion Bracket 44 points.  The leader in the auto-name division has Louisville winning as well, but is the only one of the leaders to have lost a Final Four team (Gonzaga).  

5. Three Putt Territory 44 points.  I rarely do well in my own contest, but I’m hanging in there for now despite being down two Elite 8 teams.  Probably a 2nd or 3rd place ceiling.   

Several other teams are bunched right up behind the top-5, and overall it was a solid performance by the blog readers.  Clearly, I’m lording over a real wealth of basketball knowledge here.  Looking forward to seeing how this plays out and who will get bragging rights for the year…

***

Picks Against the Spread:

Grossy (0 college basketball games watched:  5-3

Big Dub (Jay Bilas Jr.):  4-6, but had Florida Gulf Coast

Wednesday or Thursday I’ll be back for some round 4* picks.

***

I think that’s about it for now.  I’m going to watch the end of Tiger vs. Rickie Monday finish.  I think flat brim is going to come up a bit short, which means Tiger will be back to #1 in the World.  Rory can stop worrying about his clubs, and start worrying about Tiger killing everyone again.  The question: Is Tiger putting better, or has he just memorized the greens at Bay Hill?  We’ll find out at Augusta.  Tiger is down to 3/1 and dropping.  Almost reminiscent of the days when Tiger was even money to win every major.  

For the rest of the week, depending on my time, I’ll be looking to squeeze in my MLB prospect obsession post, some type of Phillies/MLB preview, more basketball picks like I mentioned and perhaps another mailbag (scroll down if you missed the one from Saturday).  That seems a bit ambitious.  Prospect obsessions may get pushed to next week.  

 

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Your Financial Guide to the 1st Round

The Gold Spike is a Little Rich for My Blood.

I forgot one thing in my guide to the bracket.  Never go with Obama.  This isn’t political.  The President has a chalk addiction.  His sweet sixteen has all four #1s, all four #2s, all four #3s, three #4s and Wisconsin.  A five seed.  Careful out on that ledge, Barry.  This is a great way to fill out your bracket if you want to finish in the middle of the pack.  The President thinks it’s Indiana’s year, which means he’s clearly never seen Tom Crean coach a big game.  If you want, you can pick against the President at ESPN, and I’m sure three to seven million people will take their chances.  Free pools can get a bit addictive.  One of these years, you’re going to get the perfect bracket and win that million.  But until then, maybe you should fund your pool habit with some bets on individual games.

This is a huge Vegas weekend.  And, I can tell you first hand that the sports book here at Don Padre’s Mexican Cantina, Pawn and Video Poker is already starting to get a little crowded.  I can’t imagine what it’s like at the more trendy spots.  Along with being a heavily bet weekend, I imagine it must be the most ignorantly bet sporting event of the year as well.  When people decide to get wild and throw down a few bucks on the Super Bowl maybe they’ve at least seen Baltimore play a few downs, or they were on TV in the background at some point?  For the next four days people will be betting heavily on teams they couldn’t find on a map, let alone have seen play basketball.  And, I love that.  I really do.  Have I seen these teams play?  The more important question is, DOES IT MATTER?

Pay for your pools with the following:

THURSDAY:  

Southern (+21.5) over Gonzaga.  Early in the year, Gonzaga was killing teams.  They know how to win big, but the Southern Jaguars (they’re from Baton Rouge, not Jacksonville) are no pushover.  They beat Grambling by 39 this year and got into the tournament with a scintillating 45-44 win over Prairie View A&M.  What I’m getting at is that this line is too low.  Who knows something?  And, the real beauty here is that even if it’s a loser, it won’t be 35-10 until about 14 minutes in anyway, so you’ll feel good at the start, regardless.

St. Louis (-9) over New Mexico St.  St. Louis, despite losing Larry Hughes (a decade ago) is a really good team.  Jay Bilas might say they have good basketball players.  They’ve won 16 of 17 and play in a tough conference.  If they weren’t in a brutal region, more people might be picking them to sneak into the Final Four.  And in fact, they are 6/1 to make the Final Four despite being tucked in with Duke and Indiana.  INTERESTING.  You’d think the 3rd choice in the bracket should cruise past New Mexico St, who I assume is terrible.  Go Billikens!

New Mexico (-11) over Harvard.  Do not confuse New Mexico for New Mexico St.  New Mexico owns the state, so to speak.  This is more about Harvard, though.  Remember the charm of last year when the Crimson, home of the Winklevoss twins, made the field for the first time in 60+ years?  Such a feel good story.  Well, they’re back and no one is quite as excited, because the novelty has worn off and Harvard is a pedestrian 19-9.  One and done again for Harvard who can go back to writing equations and sh*t on the walls.

Butler (-3.5) over Bucknell.  When was the last time you saw a Bison in Lewisburg, PA?  I’ve got to say that PA schools have the worst nicknames.  It’s true, don’t try to fight me on it.  But getting back to Butler, Do you have the audacity to bet against Brad Stevens in the first round?  Bucknell lost to Penn State this year, which as usual, is a complete embarrassment.  Another Butler run–starts now.

Friday:  

Temple (+4.5) over NC State.  You might not know this, but I know Fran Dunphy personally.  I’ve cleaned his golf clubs.  I’ve dropped a “Hey, Coach,” on him.  He once gave me a Temple basketball hat that did not fit my gigantic head.  If I see Coach Dunph again (that’s what we call him, Dunph) I’ll be like, ever going to get out of the 1st round?  This is Temple’s sixth straight tournament, but they haven’t seen the round of 32 since 2001.  Feels like it’s time.

Duke (-17.5) over Albany (NY).  It’s always hilarious when Duke loses early.  Or late for that matter.  Last year was that unfortunate episode against Lehigh (Mountain Hawks–see) and now Duke finds themselves again as a #2 seed.  There’s no way, just no possible way Duke chokes again.  Albany was 9-7 in the American East.  They lost to Stony Brook (twice).  Their mascot looks like Scooby Doo.  No chance.

Minnesota (-3) over UCLA.  The Gophers are favored as the #11 seed.  That is all.

Pacific (+12) over Miami.  Miami is very good, but I feel like they’re totally enamored with themselves.  But, really, I’m not sure why this line isn’t higher.  Pacific’s leading scorer averages 11.4 per game.  Their leading rebounder–4.0.  How is that possible?  They don’t score a ton, or shoot it particularly well, it just seems like this line should be 16-20 points.  Unless Pacific gets a ton of national money I don’t know about.  ’Canes come out cocky and flat (the motto of their athletic department) and survive a scare–by single digits.

Big Dub’s Picks:  I think Big Dub actually watches college basketball (aside from Bucknell, at least) so it’ll be interesting to see if that helps, or hurts his selections…

Bucknell +4 vs. Butler: Apparently Bucknell has a great post player. I honestly don’t know diddly about either team. The line seems shady and I’m following it.

St. Mary’s -1 vs. Memphis: An 11-seed is the favorite. Lock it up.

Oregon +2.5 vs. Oklahoma State: The Pokes aren’t as good as advertised. The entire year they somehow survived close game after close game. That’s not a style I can back in the tourney. Give me the hot team that was once ranked in the top 15 and now feels disrespected.

South Dakota St. +11 vs. Michigan: Wolverines shoot way too many threes. I’m gonna be against them every round. If and when they’re off I look like a genius. We all know I’m guessing though.

Belmont +4.5 vs. Arizona: I love the logo.

California +3 vs. UNLV:  Revenge spot.

Montana +12 vs. Syracuse:  The Orange are loaded with talent. I actually thought this was a Final Four team last week. The thing that worries me with laying a lot of points is when a team goes on a scoring drought. Syracuse does that with the worst of em.

 

NCAA Pool:

There’s still time to get in the pool.  Again, we want only the desperate and downtrodden.  The truly broken souls.  If you want to get in, IT’S FUN, go here please.  The Group ID is 72893 and the password is: stopit.

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Everything You Need to Know About the Tournament (From Someone Who Doesn’t Watch College Basketball)

Just, No.

I used to watch college basketball.  Closely.  Perhaps you remember my list of hated and loved players from a few years back.  There were a lot of random names on that puppy.  I developed relationships with teams and players.  This year?  I feel like my exposure has been limited to seeing the #1 team lose on Sportscenter once or twice a week.  Indiana, Duke, Michigan, Louisville, all these teams got to the top and then they’d promptly lose.  Usually to a lesser conference opponent, mostly in ugly fashion.  Hell, Villanova, my part-time bandwagon knocked off three top-5 teams this year.  Spoiler alert: Villanova’s terrible.  A high ranking this year has just been a license to lose.  Speaking of a license to lose, you probably aren’t going to win your NCAA pool.  It’s just too wide open.  Here are some mistakes I’ll probably make, you can try to avoid them.  

1.  Don’t pick Gonzaga.  Gonzaga has so much going against them.  They’re the #1 team in the country.  They are a former Cinderella, but worst of all?  They’ve finally earned the respect of the pundits.  Whenever you hear someone in the Jay Bilas species utter, “Absolutely, Gonzaga can win a National Championship,” you just cross them off your list.  Gonzaga last made the Elite Eight in 1999.  They’ve made the sweet 16 just twice in the last eleven years.  They could lose in the 2nd round, and if they don’t they’re definitely losing in the Sweet 16.  

2.  Don’t pick the team that’s randomly good, AKA, don’t pick Miami.  Remember when Iowa St had Marcus Fizer and they were a #2 seed?  I could be mixing Iowa St. teams, but the point is, people got enamored with picking Iowa St.  Oooh, that’s different.  They forgot they were picking Iowa St.  Is Iowa St. going to make the Final Four?  Of course not.  Just like Missouri last year and now Miami this year.  Teams have to be prepared to handle a top seed.  Miami isn’t.  

3.  Don’t pick teams that can’t score.  For example, Georgetown.  Georgetown is 247th in the NCAA in points per game.  Did you know 247 schools played basketball?  Now you do.  Georgetown is 25-6, played great in a tough conference and deserves a 2-seed, but teams like this are ripe for an upset.  They play close games.  If another team gets hot, or god forbid Georgetown comes out cold and can’t knock down a shot?  Adios.  Defense doesn’t win NCAA championships.  

4.  Don’t pick Kentucky.  Seriously, don’t.  They didn’t make the field.  

5.  Don’t get carried away with your rooting interests.  If your brother is the 14th man on Indiana, OK, go ahead and put them in the Final Four, but otherwise you shouldn’t throw away your chances with loyalty.  Sure, it’s fun to say, “Well, anyone could win, so I’m taking La Salle!”  Go Explorers!  There is that brief moment of hilarity when you see La Salle listed as your champion, and then they get blown out in the 1st round.  Fun’s over.  You just became dead money.  For the Philly crowd, the local schools are going nowhere this year.  Nowhere.  

6. Respect the right coaches.  If you are going to pick teams by their coach, you need to know which coaches win regularly and which coaches win only when they have mind-boggling talent.  Roy Williams?  Talent only.  Coach Cal?  Lost his ability to coach when Nerlens blew out his knee.  Mark Few? Forgot how to coach.  If you are going to back a coach, make sure it’s someone like Tom Izzo, or Bo Ryan, or pardon me while I find the nearest vomit receptacle–Coach K.  

7. Don’t vary your pools too much.  Here’s a common scenario.  Someone says, “Well I’ve got Indiana in one, Duke in another, randomly have VCU in one, and then in my main one I’ve got Louisville.”  What is the most likely outcome?  Every single one of them loses.  My theory is, if you happen to get lucky enough to fill out a winning pool, wouldn’t it be nice to win them all?  That way, you’ve really earned some cushion to wait for the next time you fall ass backwards into some good fate.  

8. Don’t pick Duke, Michigan, Indiana or Ohio State.  This is my tentative Final Four.  So, you’re welcome.  Probably want to go to ESPN and see who Dick Vitale picked and cross those names out as well.  You’ll be on your way.  Congratulations on winning your pool.  

The Picks:  I’ll be picking games for the 1st round (against the spread) on Wednesday.  Everyone knows real sharps make their money on individual games.  So, look forward to that.  

The Pool:  We do have the 3PT Pool up and running again this year.  It’s free.  I encourage multiple entries and profane team names.  Maybe you’ll get a prize if you win, maybe you won’t.  But, if you are going to win one pool this year, it’ll probably be the free one.  If you win and I see you, I’ll buy you a beer.  Or, I think I have a sleeve of Titleist Professionals lying around.  To join (if you played last year, you should have gotten an email)….

If you didn’t get an email, go here.  

The Group ID is:72893

The Password is: stopit

If you are having any problems, let me know and I can send you an official invite.  But seriously, it’s simple, try to sort it out on your own.  

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Letting Go My LeBron Hate

It’s Not About the Decision.

Driving through western New York this weekend I saw some interesting abodes.  It’s not exactly an area that features your standard cookie cutter developments.  The houses I saw were decorated with a unique style.  One in particular caught my eye.  It looked like it was being held together with a patchwork of corrugated metal siding.  Decorating the metal were several #3s, spray painted in black.  I assume they were a tribute to the late Dale Earnhardt.  In some areas of the country, Earnhardt probably belongs on the short list of the most popular athletes of all-time.

His legend is so strong, his fans so loyal, that many of them have flocked to his son, Dale Jr.  Earnhardt Jr. is perennially voted the most popular driver in NASCAR despite his inability to live up to the promise of his early career.  After six wins in 2004, Earnhardt has won just four times in the last eight years and just ended a drought that saw him without a win in three full seasons.  He’s never finished higher than 3rd in the season ending points race, but none of that seems to matter to his fans.  Earnhardt Jr. could be judged less on performance by fans than any other any athlete.

It’s difficult to compare NASCAR to the NBA, and certainly within the racing world Earnhardt has plenty of detractors, but it’s hard to imagine LeBron James winning many popularity contests.  In contrast to Earnhardt, James is judged solely by his results, and not individual results, but how his team finishes each year.  His obvious greatness and how he is perceived by the media and fans lead to every season being judged by one question: did LeBron’s team win the title?  If they didn’t, even in a year where James was clearly the league’s MVP, the season is a failure and LeBron is saddled with another layer of criticism regarding his abilities as a winner.

Any athlete who fails to win titles begins hearing questions.  The early part of LeBron’s career could be compared to what Peyton Manning faced in his early years with the Colts.  Manning was an MVP, a regular season record setter, but he often failed in the NFL Playoffs.  Those failures defined him to a certain extent until he finally broke through and won a Super Bowl.  LeBron was starting to hear those same murmurs in his final years in Cleveland.  The Cavs had made a trip to the Finals, LeBron was an MVP, but there was no ring to show for his efforts.  In addition to that, he had turned in several shaky efforts in key moments, his final playoff series with the Cavs being the most notable.

When LeBron left Cleveland, he accelerated the wave of sentiment against him with his television special.  This is what people cite when they explain why they root against LeBron and the Heat.  For me, my mind was made up long before The Decision.  My general stance as a sports fan is to take a contrary position when confronted with a certain level of greatness.  Unless a player wears the uniform of my favorite team, being a perennial MVP isn’t the way into my heart.  Players and teams that win too much annoy me–think Jordan, or Tiger, Federer or Kobe.  LeBron was such a prodigy that I put him into that category before he actually started winning anything.

Rooting against a player or team is a powerful part of sports and for years I’ve spent these months waiting for a particular NBA team to lose.  It might have been LA, or Chicago, but the last two years it has been the Heat.  Every year LeBron went without a title was a success for me, even as my interest in the NBA as a whole waned.  This year as I watched bits and pieces of the Western Conference Finals I found myself rooting for the Spurs because I thought they had a better chance of beating Miami.  This despite the fact that if I was forced to pick a team between San Antonio and OKC, I’d take the Thunder every time.  I almost like Kevin Durant.  If I had any chance of coming back around to the NBA, you’d think I’d want the Thunder to move on and beat the Heat, but that wasn’t the case.

And so I was unimpressed with the Thunder’s effort last night.  I felt Miami and LeBron inching closer to what may be an inevitable title.  If not this year, you still have to like LeBron’s chances to win one eventually.  I saw the Heat take a 2-1 lead, and thought to myself–see, the Spurs should have won.  But had San Antonio won it all, that would have been five rings for Tim Duncan.  How does that fit into my theory on excessive winners?

The conclusion is, I shouldn’t be spending any time rooting against LeBron James in a sport I hardly care about.  So rest easy tonight, LeBron, there’s one less person against you out there in the world.

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Will The Jets Actually Start Tim Tebow? (And Other Questions)

Gotta Strike Quick in the T-Shirt Biz.

Sports fans are funny.  By funny I mean inconsistent and fickle.  I imagine your everyday Jets fan in 2011 would have been happy to give you a quick five minutes on why Tim Tebow was terrible.  As bad as Mark Sanchez has been at times, at least he can throw!  I think that would have been a popular refrain.  You’d have to be a truly desperate fan base to covet Tim Tebow (looking at you Jacksonville). The Jets fans didn’t consider themselves so desperate.  The Tebow move was met with plenty of skepticism.  Joe Namath was vocal in his distaste for the acquisition and there was anonymous grumbling from certain players.  But the mood has shifted.  Darrelle Revis is Tebow’s newest fan.   Matt Cavanaugh likes Tebow’s arm.  What?

The QB controversy is an NFL staple and they say that the backup QB is often the most popular guy in town.  Tebow takes this to a whole new level and his power to undermine as a backup is unmatched.  Factor in the fragile grip Sanchez has on the job, and you’d expect Jets’ management to be building up the Sanchize at every opportunity, but the love is getting showered on Tebow.  Why stoke the fires of controversy?  Why try to win over the fan base with glowing reviews?  My gut is telling me the Jets looked at Denver’s offense last year and liked what they saw.  They want a piece of that.  My conclusion?  With the 1st Pick in the 2014 Draft, the Jets select Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee.

***

Why the hell aren’t the Saints signing Drew Brees?  The NFL is stingy with contracts.  Front offices are often heartless.  Except when dealing with franchise quarterbacks.  In fact, quarterbacks in general usually inspire GMs to do foolish things.  Trading for A.J. Feeley, giving Vince Young another shot, Jeff George’s entire career–these are the things that come to mind.  It makes you wonder, why the Saints are fooling around with Brees?  Brees has been saddled with a franchise tag, but he’s looking for that big extension.  If Peyton Manning and his suspect neck can miss a full season and break the bank, shouldn’t Brees have gotten his deal months ago?  The Saints have until mid-July to get this done and are still saying the right things, but what is the holdup?  In the wake of the massive penalties from the bounty controversy, couldn’t the Saints use a positive story?

***

What if the Pacers make the NBA Finals?  Even after beating the Heat in Miami on Tuesday, this seems very unlikely.  The Pacers would have to complete that monumental upset and then beat either Boston or Philly in the Eastern Conference Finals.  The Sixers own upset bid took a stiff blow last night in an ugly loss that was enough to set the franchise back a couple of years.  The Heat could send an equally convincing message tonight, but what if they don’t?  What if this Bosh injury is really a concern for a team that already has depth issues?  No matter what you thought of LeBron’s playoff performances in earlier seasons, whether you are in the choke camp, or the no-help camp, this season was shaping up pretty nicely for James.  That thrashing of the Knicks had the Heat looking good and people were handing over trophies, but now Bosh is down and they look vulnerable.  If that vulnerability is exploited are we lo0king at the worst-rated NBA Finals of all-time?  What if it was San Antonio/Indiana?  Does that get more or less viewers than a Kings/Devils Stanley Cup Final?

***

What if they played an LPGA event at Augusta National?  I read yesterday that Mike Whan, the LPGA commissioner, asks Augusta National every year to host a ladies event.  He also revealed that Augusta National is very charitable toward the LPGA’s causes, but they haven’t budged on hosting the world’s best female players.  There would appear to be some logistical problems.  The course is already closed for 1/2 the year.  Factor in the run up and breakdown of tournament week and you’d be even more severely restricting member play.  Also, I’m not sure Augusta National has a set of tee boxes appropriate for the ladies.  The championship tees, 7,435 yards, are far too long.  The other set of tees for members might be too short.  I can tell you though, if they held a women’s tournament at Augusta it would instantly become the biggest TV attraction for the LPGA.  What if they stuck their toe in the water with a limited (36 player/36 hole) invitational on the Monday and Tuesday after the men’s event?

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Pretty Much Everything.

One Minute After the Longest, Most Awkward Hug of All-Time.

Bit of a shoddy week around here.  What can you do?  I’m going to try to remedy the light content week with a real big flourish heading into the weekend.  All quantity, no quality.  It’s a 4-sport weekend in Philadelphia.  They don’t come around too often.  With the Sixers mail-in last night and the Eagles not blatantly tanking the 1st round–things have gotten off to a pretty solid start.  The rundown….

NFL DRAFT:

Great 1st round.  Thank you for not taking six hours.  Back in the day, you’d turn the Draft on at noon and they’d crank out about 4 picks an hour.  It was torture.  Then again, you could go out and play a round of golf and come back to find you’d only missed about 1/2 a round.  With the clock trimmed to 10 minutes and with teams trading up with specific players in mind, the picks came in a quick rhythm.  In fact, if ESPN hadn’t been slowing things down a bit, I think they could have done 2.5 hours.  Maybe next year.  Observations…

1.  Roger Goodell really liked ALL the draft picks.  Maybe too much.  There are handshakes, there are congratulatory hugs and then there’s what Goodell was doing last night.  He put together a 32 game winning streak in the game “nervous,” that’s for sure.  He locked onto those picks and just wouldn’t let go.  After the standard jokes were made…it just became uncomfortable.

2.  The Eagles traded up and took a player the fans wanted.  Or at least had on the radar.  A couple of years back the Eagles pulled the same thing, the fans waited for Goodell to announce Earl Thomas, but he said Brandon Graham instead.  Shock and anger from the masses.  Fast forward to Thomas being a total beast (the bypassed JPP as well) and Graham hardly ever seeing the field and you’ve got one nervous fan base when the Eagles’ card comes to the podium.  Cox was a chalk pick, though.  It’ll be tough to pin this on the front office if he doesn’t pan out, because everyone liked the guy.

3.  Speaking of busts, I don’t want to be negative, but would Andrew Luck be the biggest bust ever if he doesn’t turn into a franchise quarterback?  You can’t be a bust without hype and Luck is unmatched in that category.  What struck me about Luck is that he’s a total goof.  He fails the “face test.”  But as I tweeted last night to my 15 followers, Eli has shattered the scale for the “face test,” and completely erased its validity.  But still, massive face test failure for Luck who looks and sounds like an oversized Little Leaguer.  I’m nervous about how he’ll survive his 1st season with 21 gaping holes around him in the locker room.

4.  I always get that twinge of regret every year when my dream corner gets taken.  Joe Haden to the Browns.  Gut shot.  Patrick Peterson to Arizona.  Bitter pill.  But Morris Claiborne to Dallas last night was a whole new level.  The Cowboys run a draft like I would.  Throw caution to the wind, trade up, and take the guy with name value.  How can that go wrong? Their prize was Claiborne, who should help their secondary immensely, but won’t be able to help Tony Romo is his quest to qualify for the US Open.  Interesting side-note about Claiborne, in response to his reported score of “4″ on the Wonderlic  (that’s quite low), he said he tanked the test on purpose, because he’s out of school and didn’t see any questions about football.  Oh, Mo, we really could have had something.

5.  We’ve now gone 21 straight years without a draft pick wearing jean shorts.  Brett Favre is Cal Ripken and Joe D all rolled into one on this one, I think.  Even Brandon Weeden, who appeared to be watching from home, threw together a look that I’d describe as “Graduate Assistant.”

Lloyd Christmas Meets every 7th Grader in 1992.

NHL Playoffs:  

After a long, luxurious wait the Flyers will face the Devils in round two.  Did I say I wanted the Devils?  I wanted the Devils.  New Jersey slipped by Florida in game 7 to set up a familiar playoff matchup.  Of course, the history with New Jersey is not as fresh as it feels.  I can take myself back to the painful playoff series of the Lindros era and it feels like it happened yesterday.  The truth is, it’s been a long time and about the only familiar face left is Marty Brodeur.  The New Jersey teams that stepped over the Flyers on the way to the Cup don’t exist.  In fact, you could argue the demons have been exorcised.  In 2004 and 2010, the Flyers dismissed the Devils from the playoffs with relative ease.  What I want out of this series is to send Brodeur into retirement on a sour note.  I’d like to see him peppered and then pulled.  The biggest obstacle facing the Flyers would appear to be their long layoff.  It hasn’t kept Vegas from bumping the Flyers up to their second choice at 9:2.  Flyers Kitten will probably pop up next week, but in the meantime, he wanted me to let everyone know that Still the Beat Bang.  Keys and Prediction….

1. Get to Brodeur Early in the Series
2. Continue Power Play Dominance
3. Stay out of Giroux’s Way
4. Keep an Eye Out for Scott Stevens…Just in Case
5. Flyers in 5.

***

Phillies vs. Cubs–4 Game Set in Search of a .500+ April.  

The Phils closed their trip in fine fashion against Arizona.  They scored 20 runs in the series and by Sunday, their run production was being taken a bit more seriously.  They’ve got a golden opportunity to keep things going against Chicago. The Cubs are struggling in the early going, and have given up nearly 5 runs a game, which a ton in the modern NL.

Stat of the Day in an Attempt to Gain Perspective:  Washington Nationals 69 Runs scored (14-5 record).  Philadelphia Phillies 63 Runs scored (9-10 record).

I think there might be a bit of a misconception out there about how well the Nats are playing.  As you can see, they’ve scored a grand total of 6 more runs than the Phillies this season.  Or, .3 more runs a game.  That surplus has added up to five more wins.  So even though we’re apoplectic about the Phillies offense, the Nationals offense is a bit dreadful in its own right.  They’re being bolstered by a preposterous 2.2o Team ERA, which is not sustainable.  Especially when you realize they’ve played their 1st 19 games against Chicago, Cincy, SD, Houston and New York who are a combined 20 games under .500.  You could say much of the same about the Phillies in the early going, but that’s the point.  Washington has pitched a little better and gotten a bit more timely production.  So, just for the record, the Phillies aren’t chasing down some indomitable beast.  The Nats are a team with good pitching and a favorable early schedule.  They can easily be run down over the next 143 games.

So, anyway, important for the Phils to win this series against Chicago to keep momentum going for the big Atlanta/WSH trip that kicks off May.

NBA Playoffs:  

Yesterday I heard the NFL is getting pretty close to putting the Pro Bowl to bed.  A mercy killing.  So appropriate.  I had hoped they were going to do the same thing with the NBA playoffs, but it looks like they’re going to go ahead and press on for the next 3 months.  Don’t cancel your July NBA Finals parties.  It’s going to happen.  In a strange turn of events, and despite their best efforts, the Sixers have tumbled into the playoffs as the #8 seed in the East.  Their reward is a matchup with the Chicago Bulls.  The Sixers are 100:1 to win the NBA Championship.  Do NOT take a little taste of that.  Consider this your NBA Playoff coverage unless something really comical happens to the Heat.  Go Knicks!  Melo for MVP!

A Breath From Sports:  What the Hell Happened To John Cusack?

Have you seen the preview for Poe, or whatever that Edgar Allen Poe atrocity is?  John Cusack has become the Shannon Tweed of the half-hearted suspense stink bomb. Let’s take a road trip to Cusack’s IMDB page.  Looking at the titles, it appears that Cusack saved his career once and then blew it.  Peruse the following:

Teen Star Era:

1. Sixteen Candles
2. Better Off Dead
3. Stand By Me
4. One Crazy Summer
5. Say Anything

Now Cusack could have just faded away there as a legend of the 80s, but he instead decided to fail as an adult actor for some time.  Have you seen Grifters?  It’s got career-ending potential.  But Cusack hung tough.  He kept shooting.  That’s the only way to break a slump.  It allowed him a bit of a revival.

Finally Shook the “In Your Eyes” Moment Era:

1. Grosse Pointe Blank
2. Pushing Tin
3. Being John Malkovich
4. High Fidelity

Right around this time, you’re thinking, Man–that Cusack.  He’s like an uglier, more neurotic Hugh Grant.  Sky is the limit.  But no.  It turns out that Cusack can’t REALLY carry a movie.  He’s like a AAAA player in baseball.  He can do weird.  He can do kind of funny, but there are limitations.  Instead of cultivating those limitations and showing up in only oddball roles like his sister, Cusack has insisted on being the leading man, which has sent him slaloming down the slopes of script quality.  It leads to roles in moves like 1408 (about haunted hotels) and 2012 (about the world ending) and The Factory (starring no one) and now finally The Raven (I looked the name up).

The point of all this is, you can put John Cusack as the star of your movie, but it’s a little like batting Ty Wigginton cleanup.

***

Ok, there you go.  A mega-post.  A pile of unrelated junk to take you into the weekend.  Be sure to tune in next Friday when we lay down an absolute stone-cold, mortal Exacta lock in the Kentucky Derby.  Have a good one…

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Driving Range Conversations

Fore...Everywhere.

So, I hit a few balls yesterday.  Just a few.  It felt like the appropriate way to kick off Masters week.  And to that end, happy Masters Week everyone.  The Masters means it is time for the most exclusive and spectacular sports pool in the business (which I cannot go into detail about), but it also means it’s time to kick-start your own golf season.  Even with the warm winter, it can take a monumental event like the Masters to get a practice-phobe like myself over to the range.  The driving range is like an old friend, though.  You never miss a beat.  You can stay away for a while, try a new location, but no matter what you’re walking into the same world.  A world with its own dialog.

What shocks me most about going to a driving range is that people take advice on their golf swings from people who have absolutely no qualification to give advice on the golf swing.  Why would you want tips from a 18-handicap?  Would you seek advice on tossing pizza dough from a guy who eats DiGiorno?  Would you let a guy who still has an oil-change sticker from 2007 on his windshield take a look under your hood?  I don’t think so, but when it comes to golf, people love opinions and they’ll listen to them all.  It all contributes to the vast driving range glossary.  Ten of my Favorites…

Watch This–Generally means someone is about to swing very hard.  Almost always said after a good shot, the expectation being it is repeatable, but it is not.

There it Is–Appropriate after most balls in the air without a pronounced curve. Said immediately before “Watch This.”

Where Am I Aiming?–Always a valid question.  The answer?  Usually toward the center of the range where the mat is pointing you.

I Just Hit the 150 Sign–I hit a ball in the general area of the 150 sign and since no one is paying attention they cannot prove I didn’t hit the sign.

Are those Signs Right?–Why am I hitting 9-iron 105?

Pretend like–This is the foundation for all driving range tips.  Yesterday I heard, “Pretend like you’re only swinging with your right arm.”  What?  But there are dozens of these.  Pretend like the ball isn’t there is my personal favorite, and I’ve actually said that to people.

You Can Live With That–A common refrain of the range pro to try to convince you that you’re making improvements.

Better–A relative term.  Better than the one you just shanked off the partition?  Yes.

There You Go–Good shot…for you.

That went over the net–I lost sight of that before it landed 50 yards short of the net

***

Final Four Interlude:

Games were OK on Saturday?  Decent.  I suppose you’d have a different opinion if you were a Ohio St. fan.  It still feels like we’re in the middle of a coronation for Kentucky.  The line for the championship game tells me it’s nothing but a foregone conclusion.

Kentucky (-7) over Kansas.  

I thought that was a valiant effort by Louisville on Saturday night, but they just didn’t have enough firepower.  Kentucky appears to be able to kick it into a higher gear when they need to and that will be pitted against Kansas just pulling wins out of nowhere.  They’ve been great late in games, but the question is whether they’ll even be within distance down the stretch in this one.  I’m afraid they might not be.  I think Coach Cal gets his first title in relatively easy fashion.  Will he still have it a few years from now?  Probably 50:50.

Three Putt Territory Pool:

We’re down to two scenarios.  If Kentucky wins, “Cara’s Mom,” will take home the crown, just edging Lawrence Moten.  I’d say this will still be the pinnacle of Moten’s career.  If Kansas wins, “Da Dawg,” will complete a massive comeback (20 of 32 in Rd 1) and snag the title leaving “Jessica Nixon’s Bracket” in 2nd place.  Good luck to both combatants.  A lot of pride on the line.

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The Actual Final Four.

Great Hair. Expensive Suits. No Morals.

The Final Four kicks off Saturday night.  I’ve got to say it feels like months ago that I filled out my ill-fated pool.  That thing had no chance.  It was like getting DQ’d during the swim of an IronMan triathlon.  Thanks for coming.  From what I can tell, the interest level in this Final Four is high.  We’re getting a good idea of how basketball mad the state of Kentucky is (insane demand for tickets), and there’s also a lot of discussion about Kentucky’s place as one of the great all-time teams.  Of course, they will only be considered such if they win the next two games.  That’s part of the problem I have with the debate surrounding Kentucky’s greatness.  If they were that good, the next two games wouldn’t really matter.

The way I see it, you can either be a great team by winning or you can judge it more on the basis of talent.  Kentucky has won to this point, and not only are they talented–they’re young and talented.  When someone says this could be the best college basketball team ever, I think they are envisioning what this could be if it stayed together for another year or two.  Should they be penalized because players leave early for the NBA?  It’s hard to hold that against them, but it definitely forces them to win everything this year.

When I think of great college basketball teams I’ve seen or heard about very few strung together a run of titles (the notable exception being UCLA, which was well before my time).  You look at Michael Jordan’s UNC teams, Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown teams, UNLV of the early 90s, they all made multiple Final Fours, won a title, but there were glitches along the way.  Does UNLV losing to Duke, or Georgetown losing to Villanova really make them any less great?  I’d say just fractionally, but if Georgetown had lost to Villanova in Patrick Ewing’s only year of college basketball, then what? The way college basketball works now, I think it makes it difficult to compare teams.  Not only do they not have a chance to mature together, but the rush to the NBA depletes the level of competition.

Is Kentucky’s collection of young talent this year better than Michigan’s Fab Five?  They could be, but if they win a title they’ll be assured of that distinction.  For me though, I see Michigan losing to two, established, veteran great teams in the Finals.  Kentucky will not run into anything like that on their quest.  Even at places like Duke, keeping guys together for three or four years is proving to be impossible.  So, I have little doubt that this Kentucky team is a truly great collection of talent, but I’m not in any hurry to place them among the all-time great college basketball teams.

The Picks:  

Louisville (+8.5) over Kentucky.  

This is a pretty epic coaching match-up.  You’ve got Pitino, the previous coach at Kentucky, he of the restaurant bathroom scandals and white suits going up against Coach Cal, the man who has vacated a Final Four at two different schools.  An impressive feat. Putting that aside, I think Pitino is a pretty respected coach and Calipari has become a bit of legendary recruiter.  If Louisville is going to get by Kentucky, you’d have to think a lot of the responsibility with fall with Pitino.  They can’t hang in terms of talent.  The other issue in this game is the rivalry.  Can a rivalry game really keep things close, or do we just remember close rivalry games better and forget the blowouts?  I think Calipari mentioned that his players don’t have much invested in the rivalry aspect of the game, and I tend to agree with that.  The rivalry is for the fans as much as the players.  Kentucky hasn’t really been tested yet during this run, but I think Pitino will have his guys ready for a quick start.  If the Wildcats are going to have a hiccup, it could be here, but I think they’ll survive.  Coach Cal’s boys to win, but not cover.

Ohio State (-2.5) over Kansas.  

This is a total coin-flip for me, and in most cases in that situation I’d take the points.  They’re sitting right there, take them.  But, I’m going to back to my Big Ten theory.  I think that was a solid conference, and that Ohio State is more battle-tested right now than Kansas.  Just because Kansas has had close calls, that doesn’t mean they’ve been toughened up.   The Jayhawks put up 47 points in the 1st half against UNC, so I imagine there will be some questions about OSU’s ability to score, but they don’t need to score, they just need to play that good defense.  It’s a bit like football, when some run and gun team goes and plays Alabama, they don’t say how is the Tide going to score 50?  And, even though Roy Williams has long ago left Lawrence behind, I still can’t escape the fact that his stink is still somewhat on this tournament.  Let’s exterminate him for good.

***

Ok, that’s it.  Remember we’ve got Phillies mail bag coming sometime on Monday.  We’ll address what is becoming a swelling wave of panic.  The Phils will be back in town then for their “On-Deck” series.  Not much going on this weekend aside from the basketball, so enjoy those games, and maybe catch a little of the golf.  Phil is going off again–will he peak a week early two years in a row?

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