2010 MLB Forecast

Weatherman Accuracy > My Accuracy.

We’re less than a week away from Opening Night for baseball.  Easter Sunday, and ESPN and MLB are gracing us with Red Sox/Yankees that night.  As if there was another choice.  I suppose it’s time to make some predictions.  Some blurbs that we’ll be able to look back on in July, and say, what was he thinking.

American League:

MVP:  Miguel Cabrera.  I think as long as Rodriguez and Teixeira both have good seasons, it’ll be hard for one of them to lock up the award.  Joe Mauer probably set the bar too high for himself last season.  If the Tigers are in the hunt in the Central, I like Cabrera.

Cy Young: Josh Beckett.  Beckett’s in a contract year.  He has a good rotation around him.  The Red Sox solidified their defense.  I think it adds up to some hardware for Beckett.  Then a monster pay day.

Playoff Teams:  Angels, Tigers, Yankees and Red Sox.

Odd Team Out:  Rays.  The Rays looked great this Spring, but the division is too good, and I don’t trust their starting rotation quite yet.

Overrated:  Mariners.  Seattle is the trendy pick after adding Cliff Lee, but now he’s not healthy. And play defense all you want, this team is still going to have too much trouble scoring runs.  That’s bad news in the American League.

National League:

MVP:  Hanley Ramirez.  Picking Pujols is too easy, and the persistent concerns about his back give me a little pause.  Ramirez is a trendy pick in his own right, but he’ll need other Marlins to step up to win this award.  If their season tanks he has no shot.  Much like A-Rod and Teixeira, too many Phillies involved.  I don’t think one guy emerges this season.

Cy Young:  Roy Halladay.  I think Halladay is going to flourish in the National League.  He’s going to get plenty of decisions, and on a team this good, he’ll pile up wins.  I think Tim Lincecum takes a half-step back, opening the door for Roy to win 20 and the Cy Young.

Chapman/Heyward or Strasburg:  For this year, I’ll take Chapman.  The Nationals are going to be incredibly cautious with Strasburg.   It could be June before he comes up.  And, when he arrives in the Big Leagues, the Nationals don’t offer a ton of help.  It’s going to be tough for Heyward to come in from day one and be the guy.  If the Reds give Chapman the ball, I think he can have the biggest impact this year.

Playoff Teams:  Colorado, St. Louis, Atlanta and Philadelphia.

Odd Team Out:  Los Angeles. It’s tough to choose.  The NL still feels a little like a garbage league to me.  I think the East is a little better this year, and a team out West gets nosed out.  We’ll see.

World Series Match-Up:  St. Louis vs. New York.

Hometown Hexolas.

Phillies-centric Predictions:

Raul Ibanez:  .264/18/71.  I think Ibanez is going to be a little bit of a disappointment this year.  I think he bottoms out in the seven hole.  Now that I look at it, those numbers might be a tad optimistic.

Jayson Werth: .265/31/95.  I think Werth falls short of his career year last season, but still puts up good enough numbers to price himself out of Philadelphia in the off-season.

Howard or Utley:  Howard.  Utley is a force of nature, but he can’t stop running himself into a wall.  I think Howard leads the league in RBI’s (again) and could even give his average a little bump this year.

Cole Hamels:  14-9, 3.95 ERA.  I think we’re going to bounce up and down with Hamels again.  This year, I’m hoping the lows aren’t quite as low.  These numbers should be good enough for the #2 starter.

Pleasant Surprise:  Shane Victorino.  I think he’ll be an adequate replacement for a slumping Ibanez in the six hole.

Lidge:  I think Brad Lidge comes back at some point and will be a serviceable closer.  He’ll keep the ERA under 7, but it’s never going to be like 2008 again.

Rest of the Bullpen:  I think Durbin comes back with a decent year, and Madson in the eighth inning should be all right.  Jose Contreras may have to step up, and if Romero doesn’t get healthy, there will be a huge hole against left-handers.

Regular Season Wins: 93.


10 thoughts on “2010 MLB Forecast

  1. What kind of odds am i getting in vegas for 25 wins from Halladay? I think he might have a sub 1.5 ERA and will win 20 plus. He’s going to be a buzz saw through the NL, and he’ll feast on the NL East too.

  2. I hope you are right.

    You could get some nice odds on 25 wins, for sure.

    His over/under is sitting at 18.5

    I think he’s got a good chance to get to 20, not sure if the bullpen is good enough for much more.

    Some Yankee Props for You:

    Tex: O/U 38 homers

    A-Rod: O/U 121.5 Rbis

    Granderson: O/U 25.5 Homers

    CC: O/U 17.5 wins

    Burnett: o/u 13.5 wins

    Vazquez O/U 15 wins.

    those last two are interesting to me, well maybe just Vazquez’s.

  3. Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox and Beckett are a week or two away from a four-year extension. I am not clear, however, what the actual source for this information is (like “internal discussions” or what have you).

    (By the way, how much did Olney hurt his credibility with that Howard-for-Pujols story? It was Olney who started that, right?)

    • I heard they might get a deal done. The closer it got to the season, the less likely I thought it was. I’ll stick with my prediction even if he signs.

      I don’t olney did nuch damage. That story just got misconstrued I think and because of the names involved, it blew up. His rep is ok, I think you can still trust him.

  4. I’d HAMMER the over on 18.5 for Halladay. Flat out crush it.

    Ok, the prop bets:

    Under 38, i think he hits 35-36
    Under 121.5
    Over 25.5-i think he hits 30 in the new “wind tunnel”
    Burnett-Under, he was WAAYYYYYYY too healthy last year
    Vazquez-Under b/c he’s going to end up traded/bullpenned by June.

    • well, i see today that it looks like Chapman is going down to the minors as well. I think that gives Heyward the inside track, but if one of the pitchers comes up, i think they could be better positioned to be more successful early. And, I think Chapman has the better chance to come up in a hurry. Heyward is a beast by all accounts though.

      Don’t know a ton of rookies in the AL. This Brian Matusz guy for Baltimore has been impressing people this spring. Neftali Perez of the Rangers maybe?

  5. Also, Braun wouldnt be such a bad MVP pick… if Pujols or Hanley suffer any injuries, Braun has the power and some speed to put up great numbers.

    What’s 3PT’s take on Panda Sandoval? You never know with these kinds of awards.

  6. Braun would be a good choice. Are the Brewers going to be good enough I wonder. There are so many good players on good teams in the NL that it’d be tough to sneak on a bad team.

    I hear people like Troy Tulowitzki, its really wide open behind Pujols. You could come up with a dozen good candidates.

    Panda Sandoval, huh? I haven’t seen a lot of him. Not a great hitters park out there in SF, not a great offense period. He’s a nice player, but has an uphill battle.

    I’d probably throw together this list:
    Pujols, Ramirez, Howard, Braun, Utley, Tulo, Fielder, McCann, you could take a real flier on Ryan Zimmerman, throw Panda in there if you want, David Wright perhaps….

  7. Pingback: Predictions Revisited. « 3-Putt Territory

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