Final Four weeks of the NFL Pick ‘Em regular season. Week fourteen got off to an interesting start last night with one of the great (or horrible) back door covers of all-time. Tennessee’s meaningless touchdown on the last play of the game covered the spread and foiled a 21-0 Colts lead. Round these parts it was Big Dub H’s “rest theory” taking advantage of that miracle and he picked up a game on Kraft, Nichols and JCK. Once again I have to say I’m impressed we’re all over .500. For reference, Mike Greenberg of Mike & Mike is 7-17-1 this year. That’s 29%. Or what was known last year as Kraft Territory. Let’s pick the games.
Big Dub H: Record, 34-29-4 (This Week, 1-0)
Every other week I seem to come up with a theory that leads me to a 3-2 or 2-3 week. If that’s true I will be pretty pleased because I’m banking on everyone else screwing up this week.
The theory: Take the team with more rest.
Chicago +3 vs. New England: Another team playing on a short week and traveling. And as weird as it sounds I think the poor field conditions will hurt the Pats a little bit on both sides of the ball. New England doesn’t exactly have a good pass defense, so don’t be surprised if Jay Cutler has a big day.
Houston +3 vs. Baltimore: Well rested team versus a team on a short week. I normally hate the Texans, but I gotta stick with the theme.
Washington +2 vs. Tampa Bay: You may think this does not apply since both teams played last week. But in reality, did the Redskins even show up to the New Meadowlands?
Philadelphia -3.5 vs. Dallas: If the Eagles can’t outscore Jon Kitna then they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. The Eagles come in with extra rest and time to prepare for this game, while the Cowboys missed out on some rest by playing in overtime last week. Wow. I’m reaching now for all kinds of angles and I love it.
NICHOLS: Record, 35-30-1 (This week, 0-1)
- Packers (-7) @ Detroit
- Raiders (+4.5) @ Jacksonville
- Baltimore (-3.5) @ Houston
*Note, Nichols had picked the KC game which is currently off the board due to QB issues. Check back this weekend for the final pick.
GROSSY: Record, 32-29-4.
Denver (-4.5) @ Arizona.
It’s the interim coach phenomenon. Or, the Cardinals stink phenomenon. Whatever you’d like to call it. Do I like picking teams as bad as Denver on the road? Of course not. But, they’re saying John Skelton is going to start at QB for the Cardinals. He went to Fordham. So, there’s your answer to, does Fordham have a football team? The Broncos may stink, but they’re a lot better than Colgate. Next.
Minnesota (+3) vs. New York Giants.
My pick against the Giants last week did so well that I thought I’d try another. It’s probably not bright, but the reasons I’m willing are: I know the Vikings defense hasn’t given up on the season. The game is in Minnesota. And, this was a loss for NY in my season projections. Might as well be consistent. But in actuality this is a little trap spot for NY, going into a tough spot to play, it reminds me of the Birds going to Chicago a couple weeks back. Wade Wilson to Anthony Carter all day.
New Orleans (-9) vs. St. Louis.
This line seems high to me. It is confirmed by the fact that people are pounding the Rams as a hot little underdog play this week. You know what that means. We’ve reached the tipping point on St. Louis. Sure, they’re game. They have a chance to win the NFC West, but neither of those descriptions means they are a good football team. At New Orleans is still an overwhelming spot for these young guys. Hey public, go to sleep. Saints in a rout.
Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Dallas.
Well, Mike Greenberg took the Cowboys this morning. That is how I heard he’s 7-17. That isn’t really my reason for this pick. We’ve seen this year if you want to trip up the Eagles more often than not you need a tough defense. NY, Green Bay, Chicago, these are the teams that had them out of rhythm. Dallas has no defense. Even in their wins they are giving up points. Dear 35 points, see you soon. Love, the Eagles offense. Oh, and no Dez Bryant to return 4 kicks on the Eagles horrid special teams.
Cleveland (+1) @ Buffalo.
Tough game to pick. I really wanted to pick San Diego, but I have no idea where that line is going to end up, and I’m not going to wait around for it. I understand that Buffalo isn’t the easiest place to play, but the Bills still lose games there at an alarming rate. They can’t and won’t stop the running game of the Browns. The Browns QB hasn’t killed them in weeks. It’s an odd thing. Fitzy on the other hand seems to have peaked somewhere back round that Bungles game or something. For some reason, I don’t why, I just think the Browns are the better team. Maybe it’s the Webster Slaughter x-factor.
- Ravens (-3) @ The Astros
- San Diego (-6.5) vs. Cassell’s Appendix
- Giants (-2) @ Vikings
- Bengals (+9) vs. Rapelisberger
I’ve already been kicked in the nuts after last night’s 0:00 Bo Scaife highlight reel TD….there isn’t much worse than a backdoor cover.
Cincy +9 over Pittsburgh- two words: Daniel Sepelveda. That’s right, Pittsburgh has lost its punter for the season. Unless they sign Ray Guy, i ain’t laying 9 to the Bungles.
NY Jets -5.5 over Miami- Miami stinks. The Jets should be out for blood, and to prove something.
NE -3 over Chicago- I read an article on ESPN.com this week that tried to compare Jay Cutler to Tom Brady? The same guy who was sacked 9 times in the 1st half against the Giants about 6 weeks ago? Unless Tom Brady has diabetes i don’t think there is anything these guys have in common….
Denver (-3) @ Arizona.
- New York Giants
- Tampa Bay
- St. Louis
**Almost forgot. It is the last week of the DA Fantasy regular season, so get those picks in. Next week it’s win or go home.