Quarter-Final Pick Perfection.

Jennifer Connelly is a Woman! She's 40!

I have to admit there are some good games this weekend.  Depending on how things go, this could conceivably be the best week left for watching football.  Especially Saturday, those are two legitimate games.  Last week I stared aimlessly at the lines for hours and days.  They confused me so, and I managed a smooth 2-2.  So, more proof that there is no rhyme or reason to any of this.  This week, I got my first peek at the lines last night.  Far less analysis.  Will there be a change, I don’t know.  I just take the opposite of what Dub takes anyway.  I don’t, but it’s been working out that way. Weird.  Let’s see what we’ve got….

BIG DUB H: Last Week, 2-2

I’m  going for the clean sweep and with it I will coast to the postseason crown.

Baltimore +3 vs. Pittsburgh.  Because the Ravens have to beat the Steelers at some point in the playoffs.

Atlanta -2.5 vs. Green Bay.  Because I don’t have to lay a field goal.

Chicago -10 vs. Seattle.  Because Seattle blew their load last week…ewww.

New York +9 vs. New England.  Because it’s personal.

***

NICHOLS: Last Week, 2-2

Baltimore (+3.5)…My first inclination was to take Pitt at home.  When two defensive power-houses square up I typically take the home team.  That being said, something tells me that Ray Lewis is making his final push for glory.  I think he’s gonna approach this like a cage match b/w him and Big Ben.  I’ll take Ray and his murderin’ ways.  B’more wins 16-13.

Atlanta (-2.5)…Green Bay is playing some good ball at the right time so it’s tough to pick against them, but Atlanta is at home, and that has only hurt me once this season.  White is a beast, Ryan has proven to be a legit QB, and Gonzalez is my x-factor.  Last but not least, I think Atlanta’s D will come up big when it counts.  Falcons 31, Green Bay 27.

Seattle (+10)…Seattle used up all their magic last weekend, so they won’t win, but I’m using my big spread theory that won me the regular season.  I can honestly say this would be one of my regular season picks so I feel good about this.  Large spreads don’t go far in the playoffs, and the idea that Chicago will win by a TD at home sits just fine with me.  Bears win 24-17.

NE (-7.5)…I hate this pick.  Why?  Because I just went on about large spreads and playoffs, and for all intents and purposes, 7.5 is a large spread in the playoffs.  MGM and Caesars actually have it at 8.5 but that doesn’t sit right with me.  So, I’m going against my large spread theory here because I believe in karma, and I think it’s high time that it’s about to come back to bite Rex in the ass.  One could make a strong argument that Belichick has some karma comin’ his way, but Rex takes the cake.  That mans mouth is about to lose him a playoff.  NE 34, Jets 17

***

GROSSY: Last Week, 2-2

Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Baltimore.  Pittsburgh is at home.  I think they are the better team.  They have the better playoff quarterback.  They have the better defense.  Recent history has shown that those advantages will not add up to a blowout, but I just can’t trust Flacco in a real tough spot.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this games ends as a push, but in a contest this tight, you have to go with the team you think is going to win the game.  I’ll take Pittsburgh.

Green Bay (+2.5) @ Atlanta.  I don’t see much difference from last week honestly.  Similar line, Green Bay heading into a tough spot on the road, and I think they’ll win the game outright.  I’m going to try to be somewhat consistent here.  The Packers have the better quarterback.  Their defense is better.  What would worry me is the crowd.  This has to be the biggest game in Atlanta in some time, but then I remembered this isn’t the SEC.  No one cares.  The Vick jerseys will be silent by halftime.

Seattle (+10) @ Chicago.  What’s the only way to get the Seahawks out of this thing?  Pick them.  Once again, I don’t think the Seahawks have much chance of winning this game, though I’d actually be less surprised than I was last week.  The Bears don’t strike me as a team that has the right to lay 10 points to anyone, Panthers included.  This is Cutler’s playoff debut, right?  Oh my overstimulation.  It could get really weird out there.  The only thing that might save Chicago is the fact they are playing a really, really, bad football team.

New England (-9) vs. New York.   I love how people think the Jets are going to be so fired up for this game that the Pats won’t be able to blow them out.  What, New England isn’t going to be fired up?  The Patriots at home are about as trustworthy as it gets in the NFL.  So, you have to be working from a starting point where you assume they are going to win the game.  From there, you have to assume they are going to score in the neighborhood of 30 points.  Throw in Mark Sanchez, his last effort in NE, and this becomes a breeze.

***

KRAFT: Last Week, 1-3

Pittsburgh -3.5 over Baltimore- this is the game where you lose by the hook, but i can’t be counting on winning by the 1/2 pt.  Don’t trust Flacco yet.  Besides, if Baltimore wins this game, Joe Flacco will have the record for most Road Playoff wins.  Joe Flacco?

GB +1.5 over ATL- count me in the Atlanta just isn’t that impressive crowd.

Chicago -10 over Seattle- Bookmakers must know something that I don’t.

NE -9 over J-E-T-S- Right now Sanchez and the Jets O couldn’t score 24 in a 7on7 situation.  And they aren’t going to hold Brady to under 30.

***

JCK: Last Week, 2-2

Pittsburgh (-3) vs Baltimore – Wasn’t Armageddon a movie staring Ben Affleck and Bruce Willis? Not, according to Terrell Suggs who essentially has dubbed this the de-facto Super Bowl. Experience wins out here at QB…ring up another AFC Championship for Level 2 Sex Offender, Rapelisberger.

Green Bay (+2) @ Atlanta – If it were not for the dome the Packers would feel like they were at home with all the snow. Not sold on Matty Ice and Roddy Roddy Piper. I smell big time fakers.

Seahawks (+10) @ Chi Town – What a stink bomb. Do they even have to televise this game. I’m not sure who wins, but surely Cutler throws at least 2 picks.

Patriots (-8) vs Foot Lickn’, Loud Mouths – Although my Son is due Monday, my wife is allowing me to attend the game. People here are amped up and I cannot picture a let down scenario. Pats -34-17


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30 thoughts on “Quarter-Final Pick Perfection.

  1. haha….

    i’m not going to puke.

    i’m just going to laugh. hard.

    but, at least you are making a pick.

    i think you and cutler’s mom are probably the only people that think that right now.

  2. Wait….didn’t the Bears lose to the g-men? Am i taking crazy pills? They must stink if they can’t beat Big Blue. And none of that was sarcastic or tongue in cheek, honestly.

  3. I just think the Bears have a great setup to get to and win the Super Bowl.

    I know it’s hard to take this serious, but I honestly believe the Bears win the Super Bowl this year.

  4. Pittsburgh (-3) vs Baltimore – Wasn’t Armageddon a movie staring Ben Affleck and Bruce Willis? Not, according to Terrell Suggs who essentially has dubbed this the de-facto Super Bowl. Experience wins out here at QB…ring up another AFC Championship for Level 2 Sex Offender, Rapelisberger.

    Green Bay (+2) @ Atlanta – If it were not for the dome the Packers would feel like they were at home with all the snow. Not sold on Matty Ice and Roddy Roddy Piper. I smell big time fakers.

    Seahawks (+10) @ Chi Town – What a stink bomb. Do they even have to televise this game. I’m not sure who wins, but surely Cutler throws at least 2 picks.

    Patriots (-8) vs Foot Lickn’, Loud Mouths – Although my Son is due Monday, my wife is allowing me to attend the game. People here are amped up and I cannot picture a let down scenario. Pats -34-17

    • dear Nostradamus K…

      i admire your family commitment to the Pats…now, what are the chances the kid will be named Wes or Sir Tom or Go B’s or Pat?

      question: if it’s close in the 4th quarter, and your wife goes into labor, how will you resolve that dilemma?

      keep the faith, yet – i kind of wish your son could be born the year the Pats got revengeful w/ the Giants?

      sending all the best. and snow. Q

  5. Nostra K – Feel very good about picking the Pats game the same as me. You’re following a winner. Congrats on the boy – are you gonna name him Brady if the Pats win the SB?

    I found myself doubting my Seattle pick last night by saying that if any QB left was going to turn into a pick machine and lose the game it would be Cutler. Then I realized they are playing Hasselhoff, and that man won me second place in DA – so I feel good. Either way, it’s going to be the ugliest game in playoff history.

    Dub – I find your Bears theory intriguing – would you please elaborate?

    Kraft – where did you go? Did you lose all hope after finishing the first round of the playoffs with the only losing record?

  6. I think the Bears theory is probably that the Bears will only have to beat one good team (possibly at home) to get to the Super Bowl and then anything could happen…..

    If I was looking for odds, I might take a shot with them.

    that said, I don’t think they will win that 1 tough game. And, if they happened to sneak through, I think they’d get mangled by the AFC.

    but, that’s just my guess…

    maybe he’s got inside info on Cutler or something.

  7. I’d like the Falcons to win. It would just be fun since they are my #2 team, but I just don’t see it going to the NFC this year.

  8. Early Congrats to you JCK on your son- may he be a very masculine child…

    And thanks gross for my all time fav rant, coach gundy, ‘I’m a man, I’m 40!’ timeless.

  9. And great post on the tecmobowl- i love old mediocre players, I struggled to add anyone to your impressive list- all I could come up with was the bears possession receiving tag team of Tom waddle & TE Ryan Wetnight

  10. Thanks man. I was a bog tecmo player, but I had to cheat for a name or two. Ryan Wetnight. That’s pretty classic.

    Also, I hear several schools are clammoring over the arrival of JCK’s son. They are prepared to offer a full intramural scholarship.

  11. Nichols,
    My thought about the Bears is what threeputt mentioned above. They will need to beat one good team to reach the Super Bowl. And when they get there I expect them to play the Pats.

    Now this is where it gets weird.

    There is some stat that says teams who are playing with revenge in the Super Bowl win a high percentage of the game. Don’t know the exact record but will search for it.

    Last team to do it was the giants against pats.

      • The Pats losing doesn’t kill it. The line in teir next game may kill it.

        The Packers are a 3-point favorite. That line screams the Packers win by double digits.

        And if the Bears were to play the Jets, the Jets would be the team playing with revenge so they get the edge.

        But I don’t see how the Jets go on the road and beat the Steelers twice in the same season at their place.

  12. Well, we’re not all 4-4.

    But, 4-4 is the best anyone is. Pretty sad.

    I’m letting it all sink in/enjoying an early MLK day so the wrap up post will be a little later monday morning.

  13. some Monday Morning QB:

    Gotta give it to the Jets. They played almost a perfect game defensively. There was no one open that entire game. Revis is an absolute stud, i don’t think he ever is out of position. Obviously Rex Ryan has his haters, but you have to give him an incredible amount of credit- beating Peyton & Brady on the road. And he is the architect of that defense. He also has gone away from what he likes to do: Blitz every play. It says something that he can change it up a little bit and not be so stubborn.

    i have an incredible amount of respect for the Patriots. Bellichick is the greatest coach i’ve ever seen. Brady is the best QB i’ve ever seen. They just got outplayed. But, that’s what makes the playoff scenario what it is- if this was college football, the Pats & the Falcons would have been “voted” in to the Super Bowl, or their names would have shown up on the computer screen that determines everything.

    I wonder if there will be any criticism on Brady in terms of his 1 weakness: mobility. These days you have Rodgers, Vick, Freeman, all these young QBs who can move when something isn’t there and “extend a play” or run for a 1st. I just wonder in this negative environment we live in, if Brady will get some criticism for not being able to do any of that. Yesterday he had some time to throw, but no one was open. If he could have taken off and made some plays, does that change what the jets do on D? I stated before that i think he is the best QB i’ve seen, so i’m not suggesting that Vick, Freeman, Rodgers are better than him, i’m just asking the question. If the Eagles could trade for Brady today i would Put a “Ditka” like package together and offer every draft pick i had to get him, ala Ricky WIlliams.

  14. I don’t think Brady will get criticized for lack of mobility. That’d be like suddenly criticizing albert pujols for not stealing bases, but it certainly was a good example of what that extra dimension can do for a quarterback. There were tons of times yesterday where a different quarterback would have taken off running, but I’m sure that is part of the Jets plan, knowing he won’t.

  15. Before the year started I said the Packers would win the Super Bowl. Usually when people have a playoff matchup in the postseason they stick with the pick even if they don’t believe it.

    I’m not sticking with the Pack. I thought the line said to go Green Bay but now everyone is backing the Packers line.

    How many times are the Bears going to be disrespected by the public at home and then win the game.

    They were a home dog against Green Bay, Philly and a small fave against Minn. They won them all. They were a dog against New England and did get blown out.

    I expect the us against the world role and they get to do it at home against their biggest rival.

    Chicago 20 Green Bay 14

  16. I’d stick with your original Packers/Steelers pick.

    That’d be more impressive than trying to peg a mild upset in the conference championship game.

    and, minnesota stinks, the packers gift wrapped that game so much, i know you know that…

    i’ll maybe give you philly.

    bears stink.

    vegas says so.

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