Gut Feelings: Stat-Free Fantasy Football RB Rankings.

As Usual, I Don't Want the 1st Pick.

1.  Chris Johnson.  This is assuming Chris Johnson ever reports to camp.  He’ll come in eventually, what’s Tennessee going to do, have Hasselbeck throw the ball 45 times a game?  Gut evidence in lieu of stats:  Johnson still is the guy in the league most likely to break an 80-yard run.  He’ll win you games by himself when he explodes, and Tennessee runs the ball behind what I’m assuming is a good offensive line.

2. Jamaal Charles.  Is Todd Haley going to be reasonable this year?  What’s the deal with Thomas Jones?  Can we find that guy a pasture?  My only concern is that K.C. could very well go back to sucking this year, instead of being mediocre.  Gut evidence: This feels like Jamaal’s career year, and if I had his yards per carry stats in front of me, you’d be impressed.

3. Arian Foster.  Foster loses points for all the features I read about him where he gets cast as the standard, “smart-guy athlete.”  He reads!  He asks questions!  Guess what, my fantasy league doesn’t give points for reading books.  Good for him, but Houston has teased with franchise backs before.  Remember Steve Slaton?  I know that’s a totally BS comparison. Gut evidence:  Foster is a beast, and that Texans defense gets the offense back on the field.  Not by getting stops, but by giving up 3 minute TD Drives.

4.  Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is either going to be the best back this year, or the seventh best, so I average that out and put him at four.  I have to feel the presence of Donovan McNabb will suck away at Peterson’s will to live a little bit.  And, the sooner they put Ponder in and he just turns around and hands the ball off, the better.  Gut evidence:  Peterson feels safe.  Some of these guys are like me around a jar of peanut butter, they can’t be trusted, but Peterson won’t kill your team no matter where you take him in the 1st round.

5. LeSean McCoy.  I talked about the volatile Eagles offense yesterday.  I think McCoy is the safest bet.  Maybe we’re a bit worried about Ronnie Brown at the goal line, but other than that McCoy is going to be getting closer and closer to Brian Westbrook territory.  Gut Evidence:  McCoy will gain 1,800 yards from scrimmage this year and score 12 touchdowns. Mark it down.

6. Ray Rice.  You have to get over the stigma of taking a Raven in fantasy football.  I can’t imagine living a life where Unibrow is my fantasy quarterback, but Rice has to deal with that on the actual field.  The way I look at this is, what the hell else is Baltimore going to do on offense?  Gut Evidence:  Rice will catch an astronomical number of balls out of the backfield this year, and eventually they’ll stop vulturing his TDs. (Probably not)

7. Rashard Mendenhall.  Mendenhall is about as exciting as a Ben Francisco at-bat.  If I have a pick in the 6-9 range and I’m looking at Mendenhall…I won’t take him.  But, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t.  It’s the Steelers.  They run the ball. They’re a good team.  Gut Evidence:  The Magic Eight ball says, 21 carries, 82 yards and a TD.  (PS, 1 catch for 0 yards).

8.  Steven Jackson.  Any guy who’s slogged through it with the Rams like Jackson has deserves some credit.  I think half the backs in the league probably just tank it, and try to revive their career somewhere else, but Jackson took on the responsibility of being the only good player on the 53-man roster in 2009.  Now, he’s got Sam Bradford!  Gut Evidence: My closing argument is, The NFC West.  That is all.

9.  LeGarrette Blount.  That’s 2-r’s and 2-t’s.  Time to get a little frisky.  Blount was waiver bait until about mid-season last year and then he started pounding the ball while we all asked, is Tampa actually scoring TDs?  They were.  This guy is going to swing fantasy leagues this year.  I just don’t know in which direction.  Gut evidence:  Blount is a goal line wrecking ball, but…Josh Freeman.

10.  Darren McFadden.  There was a 2-day stretch last year when I tried to completely overhaul my fantasy team. Basically, I was trying to get 8 really good players from the 6 good ones and 6 average ones that I had.  McFadden was one of my targets, but the deals didn’t go through.  Gut Evidence:  One of these years, McFadden could actually stay healthy, but…The Radiers.

11. Felix Jones, 12. Frank Gore, 13. Michael Turner, 14. Ahmad Bradshaw, 15. MJD, 16. Matt Forte, 17. Beanie Wells, 18. Ryan Grant, 19. Jahvid Best, 20. Mike Tolbert.

The Back-Up You Have to Get:  Rashad Jennings.  I shouldn’t be giving away this type of information, but the Gut says MJD’s leg ain’t gonna survive the year.  I think instead of ligaments and tendons he has popsicle sticks and crossed fingers. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards a carry last season.  There, I finally used a stat.  Hand-Cuff away.

Fantasy Football Recruitment Update:

We’re slowly building momentum for a stragglers league.  I feel like maybe we’d have about six guys at this point.  So, here’s another reminder that if you are interested in joining yet another fantasy league, or if you are currently on the outside looking in, let me know.  If you’ve already shown interest, expect an email next week sometime and we’ll figure out if we have enough people, or we can try to recruit for the last spots.  In DA News, we’ve got a solid, full slate of teams and are ready to go.

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26 thoughts on “Gut Feelings: Stat-Free Fantasy Football RB Rankings.

  1. I’ll get in the FF league. Beanie Wells, i’m on your band wagon. A cornucopia of sh*t QBs tossing jump balls to Fitzgerald, I have to assume their coaches will run the ball 50x a game and throw 10. He might be the first RB to have 1700 yards and 1 TD, b/c the only time they’ll let the qb smatterings throw to Fitzy is in the red zone, tossing corner routes or whatever they’re called. Arian Foster might succumb to The Texans Curse, where everyone gets behind you and then you suck.

    Side note: The best argument for LeSean McCoy? Shady.

    PS: When you began writing your blog several years ago, did you ever envision a post in which not one, but two guys names began with “Le(additional capital lettered name)”?

  2. you are the second person I know on the Beanie wagon.

    You don’t trust Kolb? I actually think Beanie needs Kolb to be somewhat functional.

    I don’t know about the multiple Le’s, but sometimes I wonder what the next prefix will be. The Eagles already have LeSean and DeSean. There are 24 other options out there.

  3. Shone Greene. He’s the next Arian Foster. LT is only a third down back and wants Greene to tak over. Jets have a good o-line and they will always run the ball.

    Sanchez might be a concern, but I think he makes some progress because of Plax. Hey, if Plax can make Eli look good…

  4. I never trust the Pats with their running backs these days. There is always some new guy you’ve never heard of coming in to take carries, or TDs away.

    I thought I had Shonn Greene on the list somewhere, but I guess not. I’m not too enamored with him. The Jets offense still stinks in my opinion. And, Plaxico is the most overrated addition of all-time. The guy goes to jail and turns into Marvin Harrison? He’s old, he’s been gone, so they flip him a few TDs? Big deal.

  5. Shonn Greene’s body is that of a 40 yr old man. Totally amateur conjecture.

    Guess Plax made Eli look like a super bowl champ, too bad TO-arguably one of the best WR’s in NFL history-couldn’t do the same for that wunderkind Don McNabb.

  6. You know what, you’ve finally convinced me, Eli is great. I assume you will be taking Eli in the first round of the fantasy league?

  7. Debating whether Eli made Plax better or the other way around is like debating what makes a tombstone pizza, the sauce or the cheese?

  8. I hear Crow on not liking Greene a whole lot, but I don’t think he got his shot last year because LT came out of nowhere and forced Rex Ryan to play him.

    This year LT has said many times he wants to playthe backup role and that the running game is in Greene’s hands. I think the Jets’ commitment to the running game makes him a huge sleeper in fantasy draft.

    I do think Plaxico helped Manning develop a lot, but that’s what a lot of good receivers do for young quarterbacks. Unfortunately for Eli, Plaxico wasn’t there during his recent struggles.

    Serious question: Is Eli more like his brother or Trent Dilfer?

    He’s obviously not either one, but which is he closer to?

    • I don’t know if he helped Eli develop, or he’s just the tallest receiver eli’s had to he was able to mitigate Eli’s high throws. Eli has his flaws, the high throw being his major one, and he could toss it up there for plax and the big guy would go get it. Nicks can get up, but he’s 6’1.

      He’s closer to Peyton, but he’s really miles from both. The only person in the same stratosphere as Peyton is Brady (and vice versa). 60% completion, 30 plus TDs, and 15-20 INTs this year is what i’m expecting from Eli. I think Freeman will take a nice big step back, but who knows. We’ll see what happens this year, but i still think the list is PM, TB, Big Ben, probably Rivers, Rodgers then maybe Matty Ice. You can put the next 4 in any order, they’re just lumped in and I think Eli is in that group.

  9. as much as i’d like to say Dilfer, just for the sheer hilarity of it, the guy never even really had one decent season.

    eli is like, mark brunell or something.

  10. pardon me if this has been previously discussed, but what course are we looking at at the top of 3PT? Looks like a lot of above or below the feet scenarios out there in the fairway

    • That’s Kinloch in New Zealand.

      I saw you commented and was hoping for some hardcore fantasy talk. I mean, is this Ryan Mathews’s year or what?

  11. oh you want some fantasy talk?? i’ve heard auction leagues are the new craze. my only strategy in our draft is to take aaron rodgers first just to piss you off

  12. i also think best will be one of those guys who gets a ton of yards, then they yank him at the goal line. Where do you stick a guy like Ingram? Supposedly playing extremely well in camp, yada yada. Could be the break out year for CJ Spiller, WATCH OUT!!!

  13. I’ve heard some of the buzz, but it is tough to get too excited by rookies this year.

    maybe you take a chance on a guy like Ingram and hope he can vulture TDs and grow into a bigger role.

  14. I love that the Panthers options are “Jimmy Clausen or Cam Newton”. That has to be the lock of the century for DA number one every week right? Is there even any real competition? And if you were the Panthers coach, wouldn’t you strongly consider trotting out 3 RB sets and just going wishbone and running every play?

  15. Is DA himself still in the picture in Carolina? He completes them. (I mean in a metaphysical sense, not in a pass-completion sense.)

    Also noted that Blaine Gabbert is starting for the Jaguars while Garrard is injured. Blaine Gabbert. Somehow seems like the love child of Bubby Brister and Gibby Gilbert.

  16. There are some truly, truly epic QB options out there. Bengals: Andy Dalton/Bruce Gradkowski. Redskins: Sex Cannon or John Beck, Miami: Chad Henne vs The Public, At Large….throw in that Kolb could easily be a disaster in Az, that San Fran is still starting Alex Smith (or possibly the guy I would LOVE to overtake him; McLeod Bethel-Thompson, google him Barbara), there are just some pretty heady potential DA scores out there.

  17. My favorite part of the quote is that Grossman mentions all the “stars” the Redskins have. Who is he talking about?

    Ryan Torain? Chris Cooley?

    I mean, they have some talent on Defense, but let’s not get carried away.

  18. We all know The Sex Cannon doesn’t pay attention to anything other than his own awesomeness and the ladies he’s Cannonizing. He probably still thinks LaVarr Arrington is on the team, along with Art Monk and a 25 yr old Clinton Portis.

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