Katrina Bowden Hates Vincent Jackson…

...Picks Winners.

Happy Veterans Day, everyone.  It seems the majority of my cohorts have taken the day off from picking NFL games. Understandable.  What their excuse is every other week when they can’t get them in at a reasonable time…I have no idea. Before I get started with the gambling goldmine (I’ll make my picks EXTRA long to compensate), I have to say that Vincent Jackson is the biggest mutt-faced, asshat in the entire league.  Make up your mind, Vincent.  I’d love to cut you. I’m dying to do it.  I could finally forget about that atrocity of a draft pick where I took you over Mike Wallace.  It’d be my pleasure to dump you off on someone else, but NO.  You occasionally score 30 points.  Not 15, not 18, not even 21. THIRTY.  So, I’d have to be out of my mind not to play you.  Especially against the Raiders.  Especially when the other starting receivers have more experience playing  Angry Birds in practice squad meetings than they do catching footballs. Thanks for that 1-catch outing last night.  Talk about getting my week off to a great start.  Now I have 3 days to sit around and think about the GIANT HOLE you’ve put me in, Vincent.  The point is, you are disliked.  Strongly.  By myself and Ms. Bowden.  I WISH I had taken the damn Raiders last night.  Lay what?  UP.  The picks..

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JCK: 25-20-1 (0-1 This Week)

  1. Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver
  2. Dallas (-6) over Buffalo
  3. Cleveland (-3) over St. Louis
  4. Baltimore (-7) over Seattle

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Grossy:  23-20-2

Pittsburgh (-3) over Cincinnati.  This is the biggest “too easy” game in the history of gambling.  I’m guessing 94% of the money is on the Steelers.  At the minimum.  But, you know what?  We proved last year the bet against the public theory is just as ineffective as any other theory out there.  What am I actually using to make this call?  The fact that I don’t believe the Bengals are this good.  They’ve floated through a pretty easy schedule and you’re telling me that the Steelers are going to lose back-t0-back division games and fall soundly into 3rd place in the division?  Cincy will show some scrap, but can’t hang for 4 quarters.

Denver (+3.5) @ Kansas City.  It seems to me that no team in the AFC West should be favored in any game.  Just make them all Pick ‘Ems, and save everyone a lot of aggravation.  So, the Broncos are running the option now?  We’re going forward with this?  I’m thinking the gimmick could work for one more week.  Everyone that scrounged K.C.’s defense off the waiver wire this week is going to be disappointed.  Tebow has re-rallied the troops, until their next blowout. I can’t believe I’m going to type this, but I wish I had Willis McGahee on my fantasy team this week.

Houston (-3) @ Tampa Bay.  It looks like the Texans have turned some kind of corner.  So, let me quickly pick them to squash any momentum.  I think they’re doing it with some defense, finally.  You can’t just march up and down the field on them anymore, and Tampa Bay is really a mess.  I love picking against the Bucs.  And, I’ll do it at home in a blink.  Plenty of good seats available at the New Sombrero, just like there are for every professional sporting event in the state of Florida.  The amazing thing is, Andre Johnson is still out.  Is this guy ever going to play again?  Can we get him out there this week? Jeez Louise.

New England (+2) @ New York Jets.  Just because everyone thinks they have the Patriots all figured out.  It seems apparent that the Pats aren’t as good as they looked to start the season, but do you think they’re just going to sit back and let every team stop them in the same fashion?  And, the Jets don’t have the offense that Pittsburgh or the Giants have.  It’s not like New England is being shut out here.  You still have to score well into the 20s to beat them, and I’m not sure Sanchize and company are up to the task.  Don’t give me that you can’t sweep a team garbage, either.

Chicago (-3) over Detroit.  Probably tempting to take the Lions here coming off a bye-week and coming off that destruction of Denver, but remember wins over Denver don’t really count and the bye-week only helps Andy Reid. Several other teams have emerged from the bye looking like BK stumbling home from Hildy’s.  And, since I actually saw the Bears play on Monday and they looked…good, I’m going to go with Cutler-Face at home.  The Lions don’t have a great running threat right now, and like I said, Cutler is slanging the rock, spinning TDs.  Consolation if I’m wrong here is that I can still hop the Lions bandwagon.

Finally, I’d like to call on Mike Gundy to answer a claim that I get my picks from one of those 1-800-numbers you hear advertised on sports talk radio:

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Big Dub: 27-16-3 (0-1 This Week)

Dallas (-6) over Buffalo.  This is where Dallas hits its stride and begins to win the division.

Chicago (-3) over Detroit.  Matt Forte is going to have another field day against the wide-nine.

Seattle (+7) over Baltimore.  The Ravens lost to the Titans after winning their first Super Bowl this year against the Steelers, and now they do it again in Seattle.   The Seahawks OUTRIGHT.

New York Jets (-2) over New England.  I will pick against the Pats until they prove they can stop somebody.

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Kraft:  22-19-4

Pittsburgh (-3) over Cincy.  The Red Rifle is due to come back to earth.  Huge game for the Bungles.  If they can beat the ‘Burgh they may actually get some respect, but I don’t see it happening.  Who is Cincy’s punt returner?  Maybe he can take back a punt in OT to beat Pittsburgh…sorry still bitter from last week.

St. Louis (+3) over Cleveland.  Bit of a spite pick here.  I’ve taken the Brownies a couple times this year only to realize their offense is putrid.  I haven’t looked at their schedule, but if they play Washington this year, the apocalypse is upon us. It could Army/Notre Dame 1946 0-0 style.  Anyway, St. Louis has clearly showed they can score two safeties in a game, so I like the Rams 4-0 in this one.  Coverville, USA.

Giants (+3.5) over SF.  Ok, I get it. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach of all-time.  But, San Francisco has not had the patented stink bomb of 2011 yet, and we don’t live in a world where the San Francisco 49ers are 8-1.  This isn’t 1984.  The Giants can pressure the QB, which unfortunately for SF is Alex Smith.  I know this could be a letdown game after NY’s big win last week, but again, SF cannot be 8-1.

New England (+2) over New York Jets.  Belichick doesn’t lose 3 in a row.  Next question.

Tampa (+3) over Houston.  My one, doesn’t make sense pick.  Tampa has to bounce back.  They usually play well at home where the visiting team gets bored since the stadium is half-full.

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NICHOLS:  20-23-2

  1. Tennessee (+3.5) over Carolina
  2. Washington (+4) over Miami
  3. Baltimore (-7) over Seattle
  4. New York Giants (+3.5) over San Francisco
  5. New England (+2) over New York Jets

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Commissioner’s D.A. Top-10:

  1. John Skelton
  2. Tarvaris Jackson
  3. Curtis Painter
  4. John Beck
  5. Matt Moore
  6. Colt McCoy
  7. Tim Tebow
  8. Ryan Fitzpatrick
  9. Andy Dalton
  10. Blaine Gabbert

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Ok, that’s it for now.  The rest of the picks will trickle in, as usual.  Get your D.A. lists into me, everyone dodged that Carson Palmer bomb except for Big Dub.  A lot of interesting fare this weekend.  Tiger’s taking a run at a win for the first time in forever, we have to see what happens at Penn State, the Phillies might sign a closer  (signed a closer, It’s Paps, scroll down), Pujols will use the Marlins to drive his price up, Pac-Man is fighting.  Great weekend.  All that without the NBA.  Who would have thought?

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Phils Agree With Papelbon.

Oh, boy.

Well, the Phillies backed up the Brinks truck for Jonathan Papelbon.  Noted Red Sock.  I’m not going to bump the NFL Picks off the top of the page two straight weeks for a Phillies signing. Even if this is a much bigger signing than Jim Thome. Show some respect to NFL Pick ‘Em, Phillies.  Sounds like Papelbon is going to get a slightly sweeter deal than the one Ryan Madson was supposedly getting at the start of the week.  What happened there?  Who knows?  Someone was lying. Maybe the Phillies got tired of dealing with Boras.  Maybe they realized if they’re going to drop all this cash maybe they should go with the guy who everyone outside of Philly thinks is the better closer?

This is going to be a pretty unpopular move.  Mostly, because Papelbon is coming from Boston and that will take some time to get used to, but also because the fans overvalue their own players in some cases and Madson is perceived as lights-out when, in fact, Papelbon has the much stronger track record as a closer.  There’s also the fact that Boston didn’t exactly finish with a bang this year, and any player associated with that has a bit of taint on them.

Here are some Stats:

  1. Papelbon 2011:  4-1, 2.94 ERA, .933 WHIP,  31 Saves,  64IP, 12.2 K/Per Nine
  2. Madson 2011:  4-2, 2.37 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 32 Saves, 60.2 IP, 9.2 K/Per Nine

2011 was Madson’s only and obviously best year as a closer.  2011 was a typical year for Papelbon.  He’s been better (2007/2009) and he’s been worse (2010), but his numbers over his entire career are fairly consistent.  He’s also about 3 months younger than Madson despite having the considerable edge in experience.

It seems as Phillies fans we just have to stop worrying about the money, because aside from the ridiculous, I can’t remember a time in the recent years when money has been an issue for the Phillies.  I guess it’s time to adopt the Yankees mentality.  And, like I said, this season offers the least amount of wiggle-room.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see some back-loading.  But, again, not our money.

From the Phillies’ standpoint your only concern here is that Papelbon will now be expected to be great, but to also out-perform Madson–wherever he ends up.  The fans seemed pre-disposed to Madson, so if he was effective they wouldn’t have been comparing him to Papelbon at every turn.  Now, the threat of Papelbon struggling is added to the concern of Madson developing into the closer Scott Boras thinks he can be in another uniform.

And, the Phillies still pretty much have their same club intact at this point, minus Rollins.  You’d have to stretch to call the change in closer and the Gload/Thome reversal as anything more than lateral moves.  I guess we’ll just sit back and wait for the next surprise.  Maybe it’ll be the guy from Cuba.  I don’t really want him, but that would be intriguing as hell. If we’re handing out money–why not?