Random Odds.


Last week I got the suggestion of making a post where I assign odds to random events that might occur.  For example, when I got that suggestion, the odds I follow through on the post were about 1:5.  Why?  Because after doing this for a long time, you take any suggestion for material you can get.  Sometimes the brain doesn’t fire.  Before you know it, it’s 3 pm, and talk of yesterday’s NFL action will seem tired and redundant.  So, I’m not even sure this is what the person had in mind, but I’ll set the ball on the tee and see what happens:


OFF:  Chance of the Packers undefeated season.  Personally, I’m relieved.  I never saw Green Bay as a 19-0 team, the novelty of the run was diminished by New England a few years ago, and honestly there are better NFL storylines for the playoffs.

2:5–Chance we get Tebow in the playoffs.  It’s clear Denver can’t beat a good team, but they might not have to.  Remaining schedule: Buffalo and KC.  One game lead in the division and pretty good tie-breaker position.  Watch-out.

16:1–Chance the Eagles make the playoffs.  You figure the Eagles will be a little less than 1:1 to beat Dallas.  They’ll be favorites against Washington.  They’ll need two other slight dogs to win games as well.  So, 16:1 sounds about right for me.  How do I see it playing out?  The Jets blow it for Eagles optimists and lose to the G-Men.

1,000:1–Chance I win my fantasy match-up this week.  All I need is 25 points out of David Akers.  Or something astronomical like that.  No big deal.

20:1–Chance the NFL gets the holy quadrangle (Brady/Brees/Rodgers/Roethlisberger) in the Final Four.  Every year it gets easier to throw the ball and the notion of running game and defense looks more obsolete.  This season the Texans and Niners will be trying to crash the party like the Jets have done recently.  The seeds falling in line a bigger obstacle than the teams being capable of conference title runs.

30:1–Chance that Andy Reid gets fired.  It’s not going to happen.  The Eagles are looking at 7-9 at worst.  They’re looking at a 4-1, 5-0 run to end the season.  The defense is playing better.  This one gets blamed on the lockout and we hit the reset button.  Castillo might even stay at this point.

7:2–Chance 4 QBs go in the top-10 in the next draft.  Luck, Barkley, Griffin and Jones?  The QB position is going to become like a drunk playing 5-card draw.  Instead of folding, taking your lumps, teams are going to keep drawing (I’ll Take 4!), because it’s clear you must have a QB and now the 1st round investments aren’t as crippling.  Sam Bradford and Blaine Gabbert should expect some competition and/or a change of scenery.

35:1–Chance I watch a Bowl Game in its entirety.  Big Dub did get me into a real, live Bowl pool, so on the off-chance I actually have a shot at winning at the end, I might watch a full game.  Otherwise, this would be about 5,000:1.


8:1–Chance Yu Darvish becomes a legitimate ace.  The guy has Bobby Valentine’s endorsement.  Darvish is younger and throws harder than other Asian imports.  And, depending on your source has anywhere from 7 to 13 pitches.  There’s a great chance he could get off to a fast start.  Whether he can maintain it?  That’s the question.  Chance he ends up in Philly…200:1.

3:1–Chance the Phillies Regret not going after Yoenis Cespedes.  I remain all-in on Cespedes.  Basically, I’m looking for any possible excuse to trade Shane Victorino.  Maybe for a shortstop and then we wouldn’t have to bring back….oh, nevermind.

2:1–Chance the Phillies win 6th straight division.  Odds are still short because: Mets are already eliminated so it’s really a 4-team division.  Also, one of the great truths in sports is that pitching will win out in the long haul.  Phillies still have trump in that regard.  Marlins and Nats are 1-year away, Braves won’t make the real push–content with wild-card level team.

25:1–Chance Pedro Martinez pitches for the Yankees or Red Sox this year.  I don’t see either team doing much to address shaky rotations.  Pedro…start throwing.

1:1–Chance Theo Epstein becomes colossal failure in Chicago.  This is a job with a high failure rate.  Theo’s first big decision seems to be weighing lunging at Fielder or being patient.  He probably should be patient.  If he goes after Fielder, could be the 1st step of his ultimate demise.

4:1-Chance Albert Pujols wins a World Series in Anaheim.  I give the Angels five years.  Considering their payroll and eagerness to win, there’s a good chance Albert will be rewarded for his flight from St. Louis.  Chance St. Louis wins World Series before Anaheim–12:1.


2:1–Chance Tiger wins before the Masters.  I think Majors will still be a struggle for Woods, at least for this year.  He’s still not right on the greens.  But, in a regular event, at one of his pet tracks…he’ll be back.

10:1–Chance Rory wins another Major this Year.  I imagine most people would fall all over themselves for a chance at these odds, but I’m a Rory hater, so I’m expecting his suspect putting stroke and disagreeable “face” to keep him from the big-time.

1:1–Chance Dustin Johnson blows another major.  This is going to keep happening.  He brought back his old caddy just to seal the deal.

3:2–Chance the U.S. wins back the Ryder Cup.  Fred Couples is out there providing the formula for team success.  Relax, let the guys pick their partners, play the rookies together, etc.  Is Davis Love paying attention?  Probably not.  Chances Fred gets to captain U.S. squad in 2014–10:1.


75:1–Chance I’ll watch Rob Schneider’s new sit-com.  To answer the question, when did Adam Sandler buy a major TV network, I’m afraid I don’t have the details.  For those who have forgotten Schneider all together, the show is conveniently called, “Rob!”

4:1–Chance I’ll still be shopping on Christmas Eve.  I’m not afraid to do this.  It just might be a logistical problem.  Last successful Christmas Eve foray: 2009.

7:5–Chance I’ll watch the whole season of HBO’s horse racing drama, “LUCK.”  Caught the sneak-peek.  I was naturally drawn in by the “horsey-ness” of the story, but I’m getting mixed reviews from elsewhere.  Ultimate violation: Calling Dustin Hoffman’s character, Ace Bernstein.  We all know the only real Ace is Ace Rothstein.

3:1–Chance I’ll be drunk on New Year’s Eve.  Who’s got a party/spare bed for me to crash?

5:1–Chance I’ll ever do this kind of post again.  Is it a mailbag, or is it more like the ill-fated Mutt of the Week?  Hard to say.



3 thoughts on “Random Odds.

  1. um. this was a fun ride. i admit. i only read the randoms.

    aka, the good stuff.

    anyhooo….i like the odds for New Year’s. this translates into:

    4:1 odds Q will finally get to see 3-Putt wearing a buzz?

    sobering. Q

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