I guess I should be basking this morning. Even the Sixers won last night. A very rare three for three. Phillies crank up the singles machine, Flyers come back, it’s a window into a life of overconfidence. But, if I did that, I wouldn’t be following my own advice. Worried the Flyers might drop game one, or that Josh Johnson wouldn’t bleed to death from paper cuts, I said–“Don’t overreact.” So, even though everything went right last night, we’re going to keep it cool–Flyers Kitten style. Moving on…
If you have a long history of reading this blog, you know that this is the time of year when I get a little antsy and try to come up with a baseball gambling theory. Not a successful baseball gambling theory, but just something to pass the time. It’s a hot, stagnant summer until football season rolls around and I need a constant reminder that I am not a professional sports handicapper. If I had half the year alone with my imagination, I would probably steamroll into September thinking I was going to blitz the NFL for 75% winners. It’s kind of like how you talk yourself out of the shanks over the winter. So what I’m saying is, these losing baseball theories keep me from pawning my 1995 Panasonic TV and trying to get into the Hilton Super Contest every Fall.
Failed Theory Number One: Bet Against Me.
This is the ultimate gambling theory for a logician. If every single person loses in the long run, shouldn’t the opposite of their bets win in the long run? I thought baseball was the perfect place to test this out, because it’s easy to get very high volume. As it turned out, I couldn’t pick losers with any real consistency. The fact that this theory removed all emotion, all gut feelings, also made it incredibly dull. I didn’t feel an attachment. It lasted about 50 games if I remember correctly, and faded into the darkness.
Failed Theory Number Two: Underdog of the Day.
The strategy here was if I hit on a couple of underdogs now and then, the odds would require I win less than 50% of the action to turn a profit. This was all about instinct. Trying to guess which pitcher might throw a surprise gem, or which favored team might come out flat. The problem with this theory is, you’re betting on dogs and dogs are dogs for a reason. They’re not very good teams. So, relying on the Twins, or hoping the Orioles bullpen doesn’t blow a save can get a little frustrating. I was hindered by an atrocious start when I attempted this last year and I never got out of that initial hole. I don’t remember how long it lasted, but I think I ended up losing 1,000 fake units.
New Theory for 2012: Best Pitcher Going Theory.
I came across that picture above while taking a quiz at Sporcle. Yes, I still take Sporcle quizzes, I just don’t share them any longer. Got tired of beating you all is the honest truth. But, when I took the Presidential 1st Pitch quiz, I did not successfully identify Herbert Hoover. I guess one of our worst Presidents doesn’t rate the face time that some others do. Hoover’s picture got my attention, though, because it looks like he’s getting ready to fire a pretty nasty 2-seamer there, or maybe even some type of 3/4 cutter. Also, no Inverted W. I always thought George W. Bush had the best Presidential toss, but Herbert looks like he might have been able to spin some filth up there.
How does this relate to the new theory? Well, in the pitching friendly era that we’re experiencing, I thought I’d zero in on the best pitcher each day and put my money behind him. Now, this is going to require betting against significant odds, so my winning percentage will have to soar for it to be successful, but if I can consistently pick the right aces, against the right teams, I should be able to string together some nice winning streaks. Too bad I didn’t start last night with Doc.
Inaugural Pick: Zack Greinke (-125) over Chicago.
A more favorable match-up on paper might be Ian Kennedy against the Padres, but if I’m sticking to the letter of the law, Greinke was better in his 1st start and is just the better pitcher overall. A couple of years removed from his Cy Young in Kansas City, Greinke has been a popular pick to have a huge year for the Brewers. He got off to a good start last week, and I’ll risk 125 fake units to win 100 in hopes that he keeps it going.