Nora Arnezeder Has Winners…

…From Paris With Love.

Before we get to the football, a brief reaction to A-Rod getting benched for Game 5 of the ALDS:  Bahahahahahhahahaha.  The good news is, while A-Rod has now become a platoon player, Yankee fans only have five more years of him to put up with.  That’s a lot of booing.  Could this contract actually be worse than the one  the Phillies gave Ryan Howard?  I DON’T KNOW.  Maybe they should orchestrate a trade.  A-Rod can platoon at 3rd with Frandsen and Howard can DH in NY.  Everyone wins.  Speaking of wins, here’s an assortment of locks…

DC, Record: 12-13.  

It’s gut check week.  If I were Bill Barnwell I would go back to the merger and determine every team’s statistical likelihood of making the playoffs based upon their Week 6 performance against the spread and conclude that Rex Ryan made a bad coaching decision by eating that third bacon cheeseburger.  If I were Malcolm Gladwell I’d invent a theory of “slack” and not bother to flesh out the details.  If I were 3PT I would be preoccupied with continuing my mailbag streak of references to breakfast pastries.  And if I were James Brown I’d hit it and quit:

  1. Philadelphia (-3.5) over Detroit
  2. Dallas (+3.5) over Baltimore
  3. Atlanta (-9) over Oakland
  4. Tampa Bay (-4.5) over Kansas City
  5. San Francisco (-6.5) over New York Giants

***

Kraft, Record: 12-12-1

Green Bay (+3.5) over Houston.  I’ll take the desperate team.  Aaron Rodgers getting points?  Count me in for the discount double check.

Tampa (-4.5) over Kansas City.  Tampa off a bye, KC with a 2nd-string QB, although that might be better for them…

Philly (-3.5) over Detroit.  This is a serious step back year for Detroit.  Their defense is terrible.  Eagles need a W badly.  Mike Vick now owns a dog, so things are turning around.  Eagles by 2 TDs and a drop kicked XP.

St. Louis (+4) over Miami.  Give me a break with the Dolphins.  I’ll take the points.  The Rams are the better team.  Janoris Jenkins makes another baby in South Beach to celebrate.

Indy (+3.5) over New York Jets.  Give me the points.  Indy is on a high and Sanchez is playing awful.  Al Toon is not walking through that door.  This Jets WR corp may be worse than Todd Pinkston, James Thrash, Fred-Ex and Greg Lewis.  Is that possible?  Why not sign He Hate Me?

*If I go 0-5 this week, I’ll have my 2-year old make the picks next week and I’ll be on suicide watch.

***

Big Dub, Record: 14-11-1–“Vegas is the Baby, and I’m the Creepy Guy taking its candy.”

Green Bay (-3.5) over Houston.  The Texans are good, but I’m not so sure they can hang with a team if they get caught up in a shoot out. I think this game starts to go that way late and Rodgers emerges with the outright win.

Cleveland (+2) over Cincinnati.  Am I actually taking the Browns? Yep. They ran wild on the Bengals last time they played and I expect the same to go down here. The NFL hates this matchup so much that they are getting their two meetings out of the way by week six.

Philly (-3.5) over Detroit.  The Lions are letting teams like the Titans and Vikings score points. I know the Eagles are struggling on offense, but as Wheels would say: The Lions are a slump-buster.

New York Jets (-3.5) over Indianapolis.  The Colts played a game last week that some considered bigger and more important than their Super Bowl. If they actually put that much emotion into last week’s heroic comeback then this week they comeout flat on the road. Don’t forget that they were down by 18 against the Pack and don’t underestimate how much effort it took for them to claw back for the win

College Play of My Career:  BYU (-6) over Oregon St.

***

Grossy, Record: 14-9-2

New York Giants (+6.5) over San Francisco.  The Niners are probably the best team in the NFC, but that’s a relative term in this era of sickening parity.  Am I to believe San Francisco is just going to blow out teams every week?  If it was the Jets every week–maybe.  But, the Giants actually have some characteristics of a professional football team.  Tough spot coming across the country, but they’ll keep it close.

Houston (-3.5) over Green Bay.  The Packers, in a word, are overrated.  Especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Oh, they scored on the Saints?  Great.  This team lost a shootout to the Colts.  Their offense was contained by the Seahawks.  It’s not the same Packers team.  They can’t run it, it’ll be even worse against Houston, and panic officially sets in around Lambeau on Monday morning.  

Atlanta (-9) over Oakland.  The Raiders are the perfect team for the Falcons to blow out.  The points will be coming in bunches.  If you’ve got Matty Ice on your fantasy team, prepare to win by a large margin.  The line is not high enough.  Not even close.

New England (-3.5) over Seattle.  I’m pretty certain that this game will be ugly.  I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 6-0 Seattle at halftime, but I am contractually obligated to pick high-powered offenses in bad road spots at least once a month.  That’s what I do.  I’m counting on the Pats to get a big emotional lift from Aaron Hernandez’s return.  Back under the safety blanket of both his TEs, Tommy should cover.

Denver (+1.5) over San Diego.  I’ll just go ahead and break my AFC West rule, but at least I’m taking the underdog.  I’ve also got to pick Monday night’s game every week.  I need that cushion, just in case I go 0-4 on Sunday.  I need a day to be hopeful things could turn around.  This looks like the classic spot where Peyton gets underestimated on the road in prime time.  Gruden already has the Chardonnay on ice and waiting for Peyton after the game.  It’s going to get real cozy after this blowout.

***

JCK, Record: 13-11-1

  1. Cincinnati (-2) over Cleveland
  2. New England (-3.5) over Seattle
  3. Oakland (+9) over Atlanta
  4. Green Bay (+3.5) over Houston
  5. Baltimore (-3.5) over Dallas

***

Nichols, Record: 12-13.

  1. Cincinnati (-2) over Cleveland
  2. Tampa Bay (-4.5) over Kansas City
  3. Baltimore (-3.5) over Dallas
  4. NY Giants (+6.5) over SF
  5. Denver (+1.5) over San Diego
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17 thoughts on “Nora Arnezeder Has Winners…

  1. Am I on a pastry streak?

    People just ask what I know about, I guess.

    I know we’re now on a two week Al Toon streak as well. Someone has to pick up the torch next week.

  2. Kraft was on fire this week. Good work. You know what was great about the Pinkston/Thrash years? THAT TEAM WAS BETTER THAN THE EAGLES ARE NOW.

  3. The Janoris Jenkins line is my favorite of the year. This is anecdotal, but I think the worse he does the week before, the funnier his picks are.

    That Eagles team was MUCH better. They were a good team in a league with other good teams. This Eagles team is a meh team in a meh league.

  4. he’s in good company. good old Mike Missanelli threw out a 5,000 star lock of the year on Purdue for today. They lost by ~4Tds.

  5. The Eagles make me want to vomit. Repeatedly.

    The worst part is they could fire Reid and/or bench VIck and it wouldn’t make a difference. This is the best they can be.

  6. Man, I had that Pats game in the mental win column.

    Lotta pressure on my Super Bowl Texans tonight.

    Not feeling as confident as I’d like.

  7. Exactly- what do the eagles do? If you fire Reid who are you going to get who will do a better job? And are they going into 2013 saying its the Nick Foles era? Welcome to 7-9, 8-8 seasons. Not good enough to compete, not bad enough to be in the bottom to rebuild quicker.

  8. Well, I think they could find a slightly better head coach and they need someone to run the draft better. but, Foles is one of the main issues. I’m not one of his supporters–at least not yet. And can you imagine him playing behind this line? Like you said, they have too much talent to go 3-13, but with Foles or whoever else, there is no way they’re going anywhere.

    Side question. Does this make fans think McNabb was actually better than they give him credit for during his prime years? Or is it that O-Line that the Eagles are really missing.

  9. I think the takehome message from the NFC Championship years was that we were a few “playmakers” away from winning it all and we’ve been chasing that dragon ever since, during which time we didn’t pay enough attention to the offensive line. I think the “playmaker” mentality prevailed on defense too. It’s the only way I can understand the wide-9. We just don’t have enough people on the defensive line who are tying up blockers. Something to be said for the DT who doesn’t record many tackles or sacks but nevertheless is tying up one or two blockers on every play. On the draft history, are there any stats on whether we are worse than other teams or not? I feel like we must be worse. Going to the draft history page at pro-fooball-reference.com is hysterical. Siran Stacy?

  10. what i’ve been hearing about lately is how poorly the Eagles have done on defense (especially D-backs) in rounds 2-5ish of late. Not that you should expect pro bowlers, but they can’t even get depth guys. Nate Allen (who is average at best) goes down and they have no one and that’s partly because they are cutting guys like J-Qwan (sp) Jarrett (sp) left and right.

  11. A review of the draft history supports that criticism. Here’s the defensive players they’ve taken in Rounds 2-5 the last five years (not including this year):

    DE Victor Abiamiri (2nd), Daniel Te’o Nesheim (3rd), Rickey Sapp (5th)
    LB Stewart Bradley (3rd), Casey Mathews (4th), Keenan Clayton (4th)
    DB Jaiquawn Jarrett (2nd), Nate Allen (2nd), Curtis Marsh (3rd), Trevard Lindley (4th), Quintin Demps (4th), Jack Ikeguowno (4th), Victor Harris (5th), C.J. Gaddis (5th)

  12. how many of those guys are on the team? one? two? How is that possible? And even worse, how many are in the league?

    The Daniel Te’o pick has to be one of the worst in recent memory. There was a definite, “you’ve got to be f-ing sh*tting me,” on the panel when they described this guys as MAYBE a 6th rounder.

    Worse than that, the Eagles seem to have a knack lately of taking guys who are the opposite of “workout warriors” not that I’m saying I want to relive Mamula or they should take Vernon Ghoulston, but these guys are too often not athletic, small and slow.

    It makes big news when the guys that blow up the combine bust, but they still have to have a better chance than guys like Nesheim and Jarrett, etc.

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