I’ve been following a lot of professional gamblers and wannabes this season and one thing I notice that separates them from the brain trust around these parts is that they pick fewer games. Very rarely will a sharp go for more than three games on an NFL slate. And, in general, the more games you pick, the lower your percentage will ultimately be. So, are we doing ourselves a disservice by picking five games each week, regardless of the matchup? Possibly, but we need that many to fit in all the jokes. Free winners….
- New England (-11) over Buffalo
- New York Giants (-3.5) over Cincinnati
- Denver (-4.5) over Carolina
- Pittsburgh (-12.5) over Kansas City
- Houston (+1.5) over Chicago
- New York Giants (-3.5) over Cincinnati
- Atlanta (-2.5) over New Orleans
- Seattle (-6) over New York Jets
- San Francisco (-11) over St. Louis
Big Dub, 23-21-2
New England (-11) over Buffalo. The Bills just played a tough opponent on the road. I can’t imagine them having much in the tank for another road game.
Baltimore (-7.5) over Oakland. This is where Flacco puts up sexy numbers. Blow. Out. Early favorite for pick of the week.
Dallas (-1.5) over Philadelphia. Because I hate Andy.
Chicago (-1.5) over Houston. Houston is obviously good, but I’m not fully on board until they beat a legit team. Early favorite for awful pick of the week.
Tampa Bay (-3) over San Diego. I guess this is one of those picks that is explained best by pointing out how stupid it would be to make the pick going the other way. In other words, how can you take the Chargers on the road, having traveled all the way across the country to play a game at 10:00 a.m. their own time, when the Chargers lost their last two road games to the Saints and the Browns? In a tough betting week, I’m comfortable that Tampa Bay can at least get an overtime push out of this line.
Houston (+1.5) over Chicago. Making this pick comes down to identifying the team that has been more consistent week in and week out. Houston has had exactly one stinker game this entire season. Chicago, meanwhile, has been a little more inconsistent, especially with the two narrow wins over Detroit and Carolina. Plus, this week’s Houston Oilers is going to be a much different opponent for Chicago than last week’s Houston Oilers. I’m looking for the margin in this game, and it’s the right leg of Tony Zendejas. I’ll take the Oilers and the points.
Atlanta (-2.5) over New Orleans. I’m going to get burned by this approach at some point but I still think the betting line shows that people are trying too hard to pick Atlanta’s first loss, because that would be sexy or something. I bet on a Jerry Glanville team in the Houston game and I’m not afraid to do it again here. Run and shoot, baby.
Seattle (-6) over New York Jets. The question behind this line is whether you think the Jets are going to rally to save their season or whether they are going to quit on their coach and pout like the little babies they are.
Baltimore (-7.5) over Oakland. Another cross-country trip and I think the Ravens are ready to redeem themselves this week. 50-year-old Bo Jackson might be a better fit in the Raiders backfield than whoever they are trotting out there this week. It’s one of those weeks where Joe Flacco hits Torrey Smith three times in the first half.
New York Giants (-3.5) over Cincinnati. Giants bounce back, the Red Rifle will be running for his life. Cincy just isn’t ready for big boy football. Icky Woods, meet JPP.
Seattle (-6) over New York Jets. Qwest is a house of horrors for seemingly every team that goes there. The Jets are a house of horrors on their own. This feels like a game where the Jets muster three field goals. Seattle cover, long plane ride home. Rex Ryan removes the lap band and drowns himself in the closest Asian buffet to the airport. This team may be more lost than the Eagles.
Dallas (-1.5) over Philadelphia. Spite. Of course, in the year of Eagles stench their is no franchise QB available in the draft. Hopefully there is a 29-year old tackle…
Carolina (+4.5) over Denver. Carolina keeps it close. Vegas needs to win some $$ back.
Houston (+1.5) over Chicago. Houston’s the better team.
New York Giants (-3.5) over Cincinnati. You know which Giant I really hated as a kid? Joe Morris. But, in terms of this game, the Giants always play much better when they need to win. They’re still in 1st place in the division, but it’s time assert some authority. Plus, now that everyone has benched Eli in fantasy, it’s time for him to blow up again.
Atlanta (-2.5) over New Orleans. I’ve heard a lot of, “This is New Orleans’ Super Bowl,” talk. That’s great. Did they get 11 new starters on defense? One of the most frustrating parts of watching the Eagles game last week was that it was so obvious how bad New Orleans was and they still won easily. You can’t blitz the Falcons every play. Or you can try, and get slaughtered.
Dallas (-1.5) over Philadelphia. The Eagles started as 2.5 point favorites in this one. Was Ron Solt going to come out of retirement and play all five offensive line positions? There are about 30 blueprints out there right now to beat the Eagles. The Cowboys will use the one where they send people at Vick all day. Team’s packed it in, couldn’t win even if they tried. Not even Romo can mess this one up.
Miami (-6) over Tennessee. I think Tennessee’s average road loss is by about 43 points. Miami burned me last week, but I’m back, and I’m back big. I’m actually thinking of starting Tanney-puke in fantasy this week. I’m not kidding. I’m pretty sure he’s available. The Titans defense should be good for about 375 through the air. Plus, there’s no shame in losing to the Colts. They’re 6-3. Seriously.
Chicago (-1.5) over Houston. A while back I supported the Texans against the Packers. At home. They got destroyed. It was gory and gruesome. I guess the Texans were looking ahead last week (?) but letting the Bills hang around is letting the Bills hang around. The Bears don’t have to play pretty, they just need to win by two points. Considering their defense and special teams scores about 4 times a game, I like their chances.