Shockingly Easy Wild Card Winners.

Christian Ponder's QB Coach.

Christian Ponder’s Throwing Motion.

Is Chip Kelly really going to go to the Browns?  Is Cleveland a better job than Oregon?  I guess there is always a curiosity about proving yourself at the highest level.   But coaching the Browns is like tunneling 3,000 ft below ground at the base of Mt. Everest and THEN climbing to the top.  Why handicap yourself?  I’d always be wary of hiring a college coach, because even though some have had success in recent years (Harbaugh/Pete Carroll II), a college coach can always go back to college.  Nick Saban can flake out after a couple of mediocre years in Miami.  Bobby Petrino can ride his motorcycle right back to the SEC.  You know that Greg Schiano is going to end up coaching Michigan or something after he washes out in Tampa.  The point being it’s easy for college guys to take a shot, take a quick money grab, because they’ve got a built in landing spot.  Chip Kelly, head coach Cleveland Browns 2013-2015.  Head coach UCLA (?) 2016–??

Wild Card games starting this Saturday.  The NFL playoffs provide unlimited chances for gamblers to pontificate about theories they have.  It’s like the regular season boiled down and left them with a crystallized gambling theory that will allow them to breeze through the playoffs riding a wave of profits.  Of course, year in, year out those theories get proven wrong.  Rookie QBs, Bad Coaches, Dome Teams–we’ve heard them all right?  What I know is that the only way to go on a hot streak through the NFL playoffs is to get obscenely lucky.  So here we go.  Unfortunately for you, all the analysis is coming from me–the guy who finished in last place during the regular season.

Wild Card Picks:

JCK:

  1. Cincinnati (+4.5) over Houston
  2. Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota
  3. Indianapolis (+6.5) over Baltimore
  4. Seattle (-3) over Washington

***

Nichols: 

  1. Cincinnati (+4.5) over Houston
  2. Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota
  3. Indianapolis (+6.5) over Baltimore
  4. Seattle (-3) over Washington

***

Big Dub:

  1. Houston (-4.5) over Cincinnati
  2. Minnesota (+7.5) over Green Bay
  3. Baltimore (-6.5) over Indianapolis
  4. Washington (+3) over Seattle

***

DC:

  1. Houston (-4.5) over Cincinnati
  2. Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota
  3. Indianapolis (+6.5) over Baltimore
  4. Seattle (-3) over Washington

***

KRAFT:  

  1. Houston (-4.5) over Cincinnati
  2. Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota
  3. Baltimore (-6.5) over Indianapolis
  4. Seattle (-3) over Washington

***

Grossy:

Houston (-4.5) over Cincinnati.  This was the hardest game for me to pick.  I’m just not sure I can trust Schaub.  But I don’t think the Bengals have won a playoff game in about 20 years.  And they were hammered in Houston last year.  Think it was a down year for Cincy’s division and too much emphasis is being placed on Houston’s cold finish.  The Texans are far from being AFC favorites, but they should be able to get by Cincy, who is probably just happy to be there–again.

Green Bay (-7.5) over Minnesota.  One of my favorite stories from earlier in the week was Adrian Peterson requesting to return kicks and be in on kick block formations.  Not surprisingly, the Vikings said…no.  If they had said yes, I might be inclined to take the points, but too much is working against Minnesota here.  Christian Ponder in Lambeau just isn’t happening.  A few years ago Dallas trumped the whole, tough to beat a team two weeks in a row cliche by hammering the Birds in the famed “air guitar” game, but this time it makes sense.

Baltimore (-6.5) over Indianapolis.  It’s tough to pick against the Colts, especially since I’ve been hammering the Ravens for a few months, but I think Indy might be in line for a disappointing effort.  They made a hell of a turnaround, but their schedule isn’t exactly loaded with impressive wins.  Houston, Green Bay in October?  The Ravens should be able to get it together, rip apart Indy’s porous defense and get a win for Ray-Ray.

Seattle (-3) over Washington.  This line tells me Seattle in a laugher.  That makes me want to vomit, and I’d rejoice if I was wrong, but I don’t see any other way to look at this.  Washington is home, they’ve won 7 straight, they have RG3, they have to be the bigger national team and yet they’re home dogs?  By a full three?  Bad news for the Hogs.

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11 thoughts on “Shockingly Easy Wild Card Winners.

  1. I read that the Eagles requested permission to interview Bengals O-coord Jay Gruden- why? Has anyone watched this Cincy offense?

  2. Ponder is out. I thought the line would shrink, but it’s up to 10.5.

    If there’s some way we can get MackCloud Bethel-Thompson significant snaps in this game it needs to happen. Just for history.

  3. Arizona is ready to sign Bethel-Thompson. I’m with you…this needs to happen, although Joe Webb has plenty of DA potential tonight. How can you take the field with any confidence knowing you have Joe Webb going against Aaron Rodgers

  4. They’re in trouble.

    It’s kind of like a college game from the 80s when some wishbone team is playing a team with a QB. Of course, you can’t really run the wishbone in the NFL. I might still get Tom Osbourne on the horn, though.

  5. Nice little 4-0 weekend by Kraft and Gross. Gross – does it feel good or just make you even angrier over your regular season showing?

  6. Thanks, thanks.

    Of course, when I picked those games I almost talked myself out of it, because it was 4 favorites. And, I was perfectly happy to have the Seahawks lose, but then RG3’s knee kind of bailed me out.

    It doesn’t make me angrier. I’ve put that debacle to bed. I think this is my first ever 4-0 for the playoffs, so now I can live in a world of delusion for one more week where I think I still have a chance to run the table.

  7. I made a promise to myself last night that I’m going to mirror my 3 Putt bets with my $$ bets next year in an effort to actually net out with some cash. My delusion is that I’ll continue to be above .500 and have the self-control to not parlay my way into debt.

  8. I’ve thought about doing this many times. Five games a week is a lot to bet for real, but it would be interesting to see how you made out.

  9. I normally throw $50 – $100 bucks in each week across 2-5 games; depends on the lines. My bets on the late games and Monday night depends on the outcome of the early games which is why I broke even; I got greedy after winning. In theory, if I threw $10 on each 3 Putt pick then I’d do alright. It’s those damn halftime parlays that kill me.

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