Week Nine NFL Picks.

Things Actually Come From Maine.

Things Actually Come From Maine.

On the night the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with a 16.5 win total over/under in Vegas, surged to 2-0 and confused a fanbase with their winning ways, their building-mates, the Flyers, got thoroughly embarrassed and then embarrassed themselves in a 7-0 loss to the Capitals.  That was without Alexander Ovechkin, if you are the kind of person who is interested in such details.  The Flyers dropped to 3-9 (3-6 since firing Peter Laviolette), which is their worst start in the history of the franchise. Changing coaches has obviously done nothing for the team, and earlier this week, the Flyers parodied themselves by trading Max Talbot to Colorado for Steve Downie.  Because this is a Flyers trade it probably goes without saying that Downie has already been with the organization, has a reputation that ranges from gritty to cheap-shot artist, and won’t help this year’s team in any way.  Downie fought in his debut, suffered a concussion and somewhere Paul Holmgren was trying to track down Todd Fedoruk.  Vincent Lecavalier also was injured in a 5 on 5 brawl in the third period.

Why am I mentioning this?  Well, it’s important to realize that as bad as I thought things were with the Flyers when the season started, they are actually much worse.  Rock bottom is probably coming sometime mid-winter and then next summer there will be a press conference introducing Bob Clarke as the team’s new GM.  The Sixers appear to have a plan.  The Flyers do not.  It’s going to be a long, losing winter.  It means you’ve got to hang onto every last week of football and savor it before it’s gone.  It’s already week nine.  Damn.

***

Week Nine Beer:  Casco Bay IPA

I’ve been wanted to try a beer from Maine for a few weeks now, but I’ve never seen one where I pick up my six-packs.  Maine is up there–it might as well be Canada, and I guess the lines of distribution don’t often make it down this way.  Also note that I haven’t been looking particularly hard–more of a casual pursuit.  So anyway, last weekend when I was in Boston, I saw plenty of Maine beers from Shipyard, Allagash, etc.  I settled on the Casco Bay.

Am I sorry I didn’t get Sierra:  NO.

Casco Bay IPA is a very traditional tasting IPA.  It reminded me a bit of the Otter Creek I had last week, in the sense that it seemed to be very drinkable, but lacked a distinct and lasting flavor.  It won’t overwhelm you, I had a couple after a day of drinking at a football game and felt no ill-effects.  Probably not the best Maine has to offer, but a decent start.

Rankings So Far:

  1. Heady Topper Double IPA
  2. Bear Republic Racer 5 IPA
  3. Shed IPA
  4. Bell’s Midwestern Pale Ale
  5. Casco Bay IPA
  6. Anderson Valley Hop Ottin’ IPA
  7. Deschutes Brewery IPA
  8. Otter Creek Hop Session Ale
  9. Sierra Nevada Flipside Red IPA

***

Time to bask in expertise…

Big Dub, Record: 25-14-1

Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay.  Mike Glennon is consistently throwing the ball 40 times.  It’s only a matter of time before he throws a pick-6 in that game.

Cleveland (+2.5) over Baltimore.  The Ravens are complete garbage and this is where they prove it.

Buffalo (+3.5) over Kansas City.  The Bills…OUTRIGHT.

Atlanta (+7.5) over Carolina.  Buying low on the Falcons, Selling High on the Panthers.

Dallas (-10) over Minnesota.  Samantha Ponder may file for divorce after Christian disgraces the name.

***

Kraft, Record: 25-14-1

  1. Atlanta (+7.5) over Carolina
  2. Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis
  3. Washington (+1) over San Diego
  4. Buffalo (+3.5) over Kansas City
  5. Dallas (-10) over Minnesota

***

DC, Record: 18-20-2

Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis.  Tennessee has played a strong schedule, so I think they’re probably better than their record at this point.  On the other hand, Jeff Garcia seems like a reasonable possibility to start for the Rams.  So there’s that.

Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo.  Is this a trap line?  Why only 3.5 points when Buffalo may be starting Jeff Kemp?

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston.  Again, this feels like I’m being trapped, but the line is low enough that taking the far better team seems like the right thing to do.  Let’s not overthink this.

Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay.  Let’s make the exact same pick as last week and see if we get a different result.

Washington (+1) over San Diego.  West Coast team flying east for 1pm game theory.

***

Grossy, Record: 23-16-1

New England (-6.5) over Pittsburgh.  This could be a bit of a foreign concept to people in Philadelphia, but the Patriots are a good home team.  They have a home field advantage.  Last week they played the worst 1st first half in the history of time and still covered against Miami.  The Dolphins are EASILY better than the Steelers.  EASILY.

New Orleans (-6.5) over New York Jets.  Brees is going to torch the Jets.  The best thing about the Saints is that they don’t give up 40 points a game anymore, so you can feel a little bit more comfortable taking them as favorites.  That 49-9 had to shake NY’s confidence a bit.  Six and half is a number from the Gods.  I call it 1st drive Coverville.

Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis.  Still a little displeased with St. Louis, so call this Spite Pick 3: The Return of Flipper Anderson.

Philadelphia (+2.5) over Oakland.  The Eagles are going to screw this up.  I mean the season.  Somehow they are going to be terrible this year AND ruin their chances in the draft.  That’s what feels right.   There aren’t a lot of winnable games left on the schedule, but this is certainly one of them.  Nick Foles produces one of the top-5 ugliest wins in Eagles’ history and no one knows what to think come Monday morning.

Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo.  I suppose the Chiefs aren’t going to go 16-0, but their defense is so good that it doesn’t feel like this will be game they’ll lose.  Not against the Bills, who may go ahead and start Toolzy.  Or better yet, Matt Flynn.  I don’t know what it means when you are missing Thad Lewis, but it has something to do with being a Bills fan.

***

JCK, Record: 19-21-1

  1. New Orleans (-6.5) over New York Jets
  2. San Diego (-1) over Washington
  3. New England (-6.5) over Pittsburgh
  4. Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston

***

Nichols, Record: 19-21

  1. Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo
  2. Oakland (-2.5) over Philadelphia
  3. Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay
  4. Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston
  5. Chicago (+11) over Green Bay
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5 thoughts on “Week Nine NFL Picks.

  1. Still the biggest trap game in the history of trap games. Road, backup QB, bye next week and then Denver. It’s the perfect storm.

    We’ll see.

  2. I’ve done this dozen of times: If it seems too good to be true it usually is. Well guess what? It’s right 50% of the time just like every other betting theory out there. I did not bet any games, but I would have sworn that the Buffalo line was too good to be true and I would have gone with the Bills.

  3. I think obviously the BIlls were the play and the Texans were the play. Nothing is going to work 100% of the time. I think you just have to stick with whatever you believe, don’t flip flop and end up losing both ways.

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