81 in the Books.

Phillies Win Projection Machine.

*Note, I wrote the vast majority of this post before Cole Hamels left today’s game with an injury to his non-pitching hand.

The Phillies played their 81st game last night, another nail-biting win where the pitching stole the show.  It was the 51st win for the home team, and put them on pace for a club record 102 victories.  Two straight wins over the Red Sox, a nice lead in the division, and 3 candidates to start the All-Star game have us sitting nice and pretty, but let’s take a moment away from all that and take a look back at the pre-season predictions.  As is my custom here, let’s examine exactly how wrong I was on March 31st.  We’ll do league-wide stuff first, then focus in on the Phils.

AL Playoff Teams:

What I said:  Boston, New York, Detroit and Oakland.

If the Playoffs Started Today:  New York, Boston, Cleveland and Texas.

Analysis:  I’m percentage points away from hitting 75% here.  Right now Boston and New York look like solid picks.  Dare I say the AL isn’t quite as deep as it has been in past years?   I think the Red Sox and Yanks will have plenty of teams to beat up on to make the post-season.  I also think the Tigers will prevail in the Central.  The A’s were, by far, my worst pick, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas repeat in a weak division.

NL Playoff Teams:

What I Said:  Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Colorado and San Francisco

If the Playoffs Started Today: Philadelphia, Milwaukee, San Franciso, Atlanta.

Analysis:  The pitching of San Francisco and Philly should carry them through.  The Central is still wide-open, and I don’t really trust the Brewers to close.  The Braves look like a strong wild-card contender, certainly better than Colorado who has been ravaged by injuries to their rotation and hasn’t hit like you would have expected.

AL Rookie of the Year:  

What I said: Kyle Drabek

Who it is:  Michael Pineda

Analysis:  Drabek started strong for Toronto, or was at least was showing promise, but he couldn’t maintain any level of success.  A trip to the Minors has been a disaster and he’s got no chance of winning this award.  A clear-cut F for a pick, no doubt.  Pineda has some competition with Zach Britton and Jeremy Hellickson among the pitchers and there is always a chance a mid-season call-up like Dustin Ackley could get ridiculously hot in the 2nd half and steal the trophy.

NL Rookie of the Year: 

I said:  Aroldis Chapman

Who it is: Craig Kimbrel.

Analysis:  Wow, good job with the rookies, Grossy.  Chapman was hurt, sent to the Minors and isn’t performing.  What can I say? I went for the 103 MPH fastball.  Kimbrel  is piling up saves in a fairly wide-open NL race.  Maybe it’s hard to give it to a closer, but the best every day option is Washington’s Danny Espinosa, who has some good production numbers, especially for a 2nd baseman.

AL Cy Young

I said: Justin Verlander

Who it is:  Justin Verlander

Analysis:  The Phillies win over Josh Beckett on Tuesday helped the cause here, but really Verlander has been in a groove. He’s dominating the AL in the traditional and metric categories, he threw a no-hitter, and with Jered Weaver cooling off a bit as well, I don’t think this is much of a race.

NL Cy Young:

I said: Roy Halladay

Who it is:  Roy Halladay

Analysis:  The only non-Phillie you can really make a case for is Jair Jurrgens.  Jurrgens has the ERA lead, but he hasn’t eaten up the innings that Halladay and Hamels have or been as dominant.  Halladay wins out thanks to his combination of old-school appeal (complete games and wins) plus he dominates the WAR stats.  Cliff Lee is hard charging, but halfway home I’m sticking with Roy.

AL MVP: 

I Said: Miguel Cabrera

Who it is: Adrian Gonzalez

Analysis:  My boy Miguel Cabrera can’t catch a break.  Last year Josh Hamilton went crazy and this year it looks like Adrian Gonzalez is doing the same.  Miggy is hitting .337 with 17 Homers and 56 RBI, but Gonzalez is still the clear choice. After a modest April, Gonzalez has been getting hotter and hotter, but with the big years Cabrera and Jose Bautista are having, he’ll have to keep the pedal down to bring this home in the 2nd half.

NL MVP:

I Said: Ryan Braun

Who it is:  Jose Reyes

Analysis:  Some people might give it to Prince Fielder.  He’s having a big year for a first place team, and I couldn’t argue too much with that, but Reyes has been unreal this season.  If we ignore W/L record, I think he’s the choice.  Not discounting Braun either, who is probably at least top-4 at this point, but Reyes is leading a suddenly scorching Mets offense.  He’s hitting .351, he’s on pace for 30 triples, 130 runs and 60 steals.  It’s not a conventional MVP season, but he’s still my pick.

Phillies Predictions:

I predicted 94 Wins.  The current pace of 102 would blow that away and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Phils got there.

Good Calls:

I predicted a good year for Shane Victorino, we already touched on Halladay, and I touted Mike Stutes as well.  Love our Stutes-y.  I’d give myself 1/2 a point for claiming Howard would be the offensive MVP.  If it’s not him, it’s Victorino.  For Cliff Lee I said 16-9 with a 3 ERA and a few bad starts keep him from Cy Young contention.  He’s on pace for 18-10 with a 2.7 ERA.  The part about the handful of bad starts has been dead on.

Terrible Calls:

Depsite reservations, I said Cole Hamels was the pitcher I was most worried about.  That lasted one start.  Now, Oswalt is that guy, and we’re worrying if he’s going to retire.  I bombed on the corner outfielders as well.  I thought Raul and Ben Francisco would be having better years, especially Benny.  I said 24 homers and a .270 average.  Considering he’s not getting much playing time, he’ll be lucky to get to 12 homers, and we know he’s not hitting .270.  Ibanez might get near my HR projection, but that’s about it.  Things caught up with him one-year early.  I predicted a down year for Placido Polanco. That prediction, unfortunately, is looking less terrible the further we get into the season.  I think this aging team wears down quickly.  Polanco is a prime example.

Ok, that’s the full summary.  Who are you giving out the awards to?

Phillies Game Update:  Cole Hamels leaves a 0-0 game with an injury to his non-pitching hand.  I wasn’t watching so I don’t know what happened exactly, but it sounds like he got hit on a ball back up the middle.  More bad news for the Phillies. Not only long-term, but today, I’m not sure David Herndon and company can keep pace with Jon Lester today.  If Cole’s hand is broken, the Phillies rotation will suddenly be Halladay/Lee/Worley/Kendrick and ???  You don’t want to know the options and AA and AAA.

As expected, Boston getting their hacks off Herndon.  They now lead it, 2-0. I’ve got to say that J.J. Redick has really been the star for Boston this series.  Man, this could really put a downer on what started out as a great series for the Phillies.

Beard Talk.

At Minimum a Triple Violation.

Big Dub wanted a beard post.  I don’t know that I am really qualified to write such a post, but I obviously have an opinion. I know Big Dub could grow a similarly awful beard to the one Hunter Mahan is sporting above.  For my money, it is currently the worst mainstream beard in America, but only after Wilson Valdez shaved his “that thing” the other day. Mahan violates on pretty much every angle.  He’s growing a beard when he really can’t grow one.  His hair has an orange tint (automatic violation), and he’s obviously doing it in some hipster attempt to falsely represent indifference.  Any real beard guy, or anyone who actually is too lazy to shave should be insulted.  I am.  The conclusion I’m coming to here is that beards are only grown for two reasons:  laziness and vanity.  I can personally vouch for this.

Before I get further into the beards, let me take a quick detour to the mustache.  No bit of facial hair is burdened with such terrible stigmas.  “Hey look at that porn-stache.”  “Nice molestache.”  These are things that if you run in my circles you hear just about every day.  Sporting a bad mustache is an invitation for mockery.  The reason you see so many bad mustaches, though, is because on the slim chance you actually pull it off, you are doing something very special.  A power mustache totally flips the script.  As long as there are people like Ron Swanson pulling off the ‘stache to perfection, there will be any number of terrible imitations.

Church.

All right, getting back to beards.  Let’s throw out some varieties of facial hair and some of the things that pop into my mind when looking at said styles.

Old Man Bushy Beard:  The Old Man Bushy Beard is a classic.  Personally, I feel like this is an extension of the, “I’m Old, I’m doing whatever I want,” philosophy.  Just like an old guy in blue-blockers will power through a stop sign with nary a care, they’ll rock their beard and not give a darn what you have to say about it.  Also, they may have some mall Santa aspirations.   Those are choice gigs.

Young Man Bushy Beard:  Totally different animal.  I feel like these guys are trying to send a message.  “I’m rustic.”  “I can fell an acre of timber in a single afternoon.”  I think it’s rooted in misconception, though.  I don’t think many lumberjacks or farmers actually rock these beards.  It’s all guys who think that is what they are supposed to look like, but in fact they’re just working at Barnes and Noble or doing the open-mic circuit in Nashville.

The Chin Strap:  Everyone loves a chin strap.  And, I’m talking about the full effort here.  No mustache.  The Amish rock these with an odd grace, but we’ll leave them out of it.  The chin straps you see in the world of electricity are usually worn by guys who cannot grow mustaches and yet have no idea how bad a chin strap actually looks. I feel like people with chin straps have a high propensity for wearing jorts.  They also may or may not have a souped up Mitsubishi.  In extreme cases the chin strap wearer will have designs cut into their hair.

Wanna Go for a Ride in my Impreza?

The Goatee:  I feel like the goatee should have a grandfather clause.  Like the NHL players who were allowed to continue playing without a helmet, I feel that if you can prove you wore a goatee in the 90s, then you are allowed to keep wearing it. Otherwise, I think we can chalk this up to a failed experiment.  I remember being around 12 and thinking that as soon as I was able I was going to grow a goatee.  I’d immediately look harder, older and just walk around in a fog of masculinity.  A few years later, this is exactly what I did.  Of course, I looked like a donkey.  The goatee for me has become the male equivalent of Mom Jeans.  Tiger Woods isn’t pulling it off.  “Oh, sweet goatee, Tiger.  But, can you move your minivan?  It’s blocking an exit.”

Chin Only Garbage:  Any type of “soul patch,” or its brethren.  Can’t believe I just typed soul patch.  Unfortunately, I once had a chin only beard after realizing the mustache part of my goatee wasn’t happening properly.  This was clearly the nadir of my facial hair career.  The thing with these beards is that if you have one I can guarantee that your friends are in a constant debate over how to tell you that you look like an a-hole.  They are almost embarrassed to be in public with you, but duties of the friendship just slightly outweigh the atrocity on your face.  Do everyone a favor and shave.

The Perma-Stubble.  I think this beard has somehow garnered a level of acceptance across all fields of masculinity.  But, I have to say, I find this to be the most vain of all beards.  You know how much work it takes to maintain a beard in this fashion?  A lot.  And, that is precisely what most of these guys don’t want you to know.  I understand the appeal.  We’ve all looked in the mirror on like day 2 or 3, been ready to shave only to find yourself looking absolutely ravishing.  You put off shaving and embrace the perfect stubble, but the next day you are back to looking like garbage.  So, you must maintain, and from that point on you are just chasing the dragon.  So, I’ve got to say, regardless your walk of life, if you have this beard going, you are a bit of a pretty boy.

The Catch All, Carnival Beard Category:  If you happen to have mutton chops, or perhaps a reverse goatee, some wild Fu Manchu, I’d say you are the type of person who is likely to get into an argument about your beard.  Someone will say you look like a douche with your reverse goatee and then you’ll say, “What are you gay?  Why do you care what my beard looks like.”  These guys will preach that their beard is a result of them, “not giving a F–k,” about anything, but we know that isn’t true.  It’s best to just let these guys be, though, because they are very likely to challenge you to a fight.  Of course, if you want to get into a fight, go right ahead, whatever works.

I think that’s all I have on beards.  Hopefully that is acceptable for Big Dub, and everyone else can feel a little more educated on the subject.  Feel free to call BS, or correct any glaring mistakes you see in my analysis.  I feel like I’m probably right, though.