Week 16 NFL Picks.

A Lot Better than Cowher Power.

There could be a huge Eagles game tonight.  NBC “flexed” the game, and if Dallas loses this afternoon they’ll get the Eagles trying to clinch the NFC East in front of what should be a well-lathered mass of fans.  But, if Dallas beats the Redskins, the game becomes almost meaningless for Philadelphia and the fans will have spent upwards of eight hours tailgating for nothing.  Hey, at least it’s going to be 70 degrees.  Seasonal.  Personally, I think Dallas will win today, something I’d rather see anyway.  Let’s see if these Eagles, who have fans concocting Super Bowl scenarios can beat a mediocre team in week 17 to qualify.

Week 16 Beer:  Ithaca Beer Company, Flower Power IPA.

I went to Ithaca once.  Scenic.  Hilly.  I definitely had a few beers during the excursion, but I don’t recall dancing with this local flavor.  Chances are the name and the Scooby Doo writing on the bottle might have slowed my enthusiasm.  But, I grabbed one of these with my variety pack a while back, because why not?  The label had been steering me wrong in recent weeks–time for a change.

Am I Sorry I didn’t get Sierra–NO.

I knew I liked this beer from the first sip, before I had looked into it at all and found out it was a very highly regarded IPA.  The flavors are intense.  The hops are strong and so noticeably citrus that even a dumbsh*t like me can easily identify them.  This wouldn’t be the IPA I would give someone who I was trying to ease into the genre.  It’s too much, that hint of bitterness would probably turn some people off.  But, after a week of being sick and slogging through some real muck, it was exactly what I needed.  Atta boy, Ithaca.

Top 10 So Far:

1. The Alchemist, Heady Topper
2. Ithaca Beer Company, Flower Power IPA
3. Southern Tier, 2X IPA
4. Smuttynose, Finest Kind IPA
5. Bear Republic, Racer 5 IPA
6. Shed IPA
7. Bell’s Midwestern Pale Ale
8. Red Hook Long Hammer IPA
9. Casco Bay IPA
10. Anderson Valley Hop Ottin’ IPA

***

Kraft, 43-30-2

1. Miami (-3) over Buffalo
2. New Orleans (+3) over Carolina
3. Oakland (+10) over San Diego
4. Philly (-3) over Chicago
5. Jacksonville (+5.5) over Tennessee

***

JCK, 32-37-1

1. New England (+2.5) over Baltimore
2. San Diego (-10) over Oakland
3. Denver (-10.5) over Houston
4. Dallas (-3) over Washington
5. Seattle (-10.5) over Arizona

***

Big Dub, 39-29-3

1. Seattle (-10.5) over Arizona
2. Cincinnati (-7) over Minnesota
3. Kansas City (-6.5) over Indianapolis
4. Tampa Bay (+5.5) over St. Louis
5. Washington (+3) over Dallas

***

Nichols, 36-37-2

1. St. Louis (-5.5) over Tampa Bay
2. Indianapolis (+6.5) over Kansas City
3. Cincinnati (-7) over Minnesota
4. Tennessee (-5.5) over Jacksonville
5. New York Giants (+9) over Detroit

***

DC, 38-33-4

1. Buffalo (+3) over Miami
2. Cleveland (+2.5) over New York Jets
3. Cincinnati (-7) over Minnesota
4. Denver (-10.5) over Houston
5. Seattle (-10.5) over Arizona

***

Grossy, 40-31-4

New England (+2.5) over Baltimore.  The Patriots are severely depleted and looked sluggish last week, but Miami has always been the place where they play the worst.  Can you blame them?  Miami is awful.  I think we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves with this line, though.  Let’s not confuse Baltimore for a top-level team.  It’s going to be ugly again, but this time New England squeaks it out.

Dallas (-3) over Washington.  The Redskins showed some life last week!  That was against a team that may be the worst in the NFC and has long given up on their season.  If Kirk Cousins can’t rally for that win, he’s not going to rally for any wins.  Dallas is a mess, has a historically bad defense, and is poorly coached.  But, I don’t think they’ve given up.  They ruin the day for the Eagles’ fans.

Chicago (+3) over Philadelphia.  Speaking of which, I’d like to see this game matter for the sole reason of seeing how the Eagles handle the Bears’ offense.  Can’t believe I’m saying that, but the Bears have a ton of weapons.  The Eagles have secondary issues: see Matt Cassel’s explosion, so Marshall and Alshon could spell disaster.  When the D holds it together, the Eagles win, when they don’t–loss.  Don’t see them containing the Bears.

St. Louis (-5.5) over Tampa Bay.  The Rams have become decent?  They play tough at home.  It looks like Tampa is back into a spiral.  Perhaps they thought, you know what?  We don’t think we want Schiano around next year.  Let’s go ahead and make sure he gets rat-canned.  Can you pick the Rams to blow someone out?  I just did.

San Francisco (-12) over Atlanta.  Counting on Atlanta not mentally making this road trip.  The Niners are on roll. The two words coming to mind are ugly and early.

 

Week 13 NFL Picks — Finally.

The Pride Of New Hampshire.

Well, the games start in about 4 hours.  If I wait much longer, I’d be guaranteed to picks some winners.  This is what can happen.  Big holiday weekend.  Eating, shopping, had to dig the christmas tree out of the ground myself.  It’s that holiday time.  I won’t waste any more of it…

Week 13 Beer:  Smuttynose “Finestkind” IPA

I first had this beer a long time ago.  So long that I really didn’t remember it at all.  It was on tap at Quotations in Media, home to many a random brew.  Sometimes those nights at Quotations turn into a little bit of a haze when one beefy IPA gets poured on top of another.  But, I started seeing Smuttynose in six-packs, and despite me having no idea what the name means, I decided to try it again–for the first time.

Am I sorry I didn’t Get Sierra:  No.

Smuttynose packs a lot of punch.  At nearly 7% ABV, it’s an IPA with a distinct taste but you know from the first sip that you aren’t drinking a light beer.  It warms you up right away.  But, Smuttynose has all the classic IPA hops you’d be looking for and pours absolutely beautifully–if you’re into that kind of thing.  It’s a great beer to drink while you ease through a big, beefy dinner.

Top 10:

1. The Alchemist, Heady Topper
2. Southern Tier 2X IPA
3. Smuttynose “Finestkind” IPA
4. Bear Republic Racer 5 IPA
5. Shed Brewing IPA
6. Bell’s Midwestern Pale Ale
7. Casco Bay IPA
8. Anderson Valley Hop Ottin’ IPA
9. Evil Genius Eye PA
10. Deschutes Brewery IPA

***

JCK, 27-34-1

1. Denver (-5.5) over Kansas City
2. New England (-7.5) over Houston
3. Miami (+2) over New York Jets

***

Kraft, 35-23-2

1. Buffalo (-3) over Real Housewives of Atlanta
2. Seattle (-4.5) over New Orleans
3. St. Louis (+8) over San Francisco
4. Jacksonville (+7) over Cleveland
5. Tampa Bay (+7.5) over Carolina

***

Nichols, 29-31-2

1. Denver (-5.5) over Kansas City
2. Chicago (+1) over Minnesota
3. New York Giants (-1) over Washington

***

DC, 28-29-4

1. San Francisco (-8) over St. Louis
2. Miami (+2) over New York Jets
3. San Diego (-1) over Cincinnati
4. Minnesota (-1) over Chicago

***

Grossy, 34-23-3

Chicago (+1) over Minnesota.  Wrong team’s favored.  That’s one of my all-time favorite tout lines.  But, really, Minnesota giving points is awfully tempting.  What’s the worst thing that could happen, they tie?  This is 53 guys against Adrian Peterson.  I’ll take the 53 guys by a whisker.

Arizona (+3) over Philadelphia.  Some warning signs for Arizona–they’re coming across the country.  They are coming off a big win.  Some warning signs for Philly–they haven’t beaten a good team.  I’m nothing if not disturbingly stubborn, so I’m going to stick with this whole Nick Foles aberration thing until I’m proven right.  It may take 10 years, but it’s happening damnit.

Buffalo (-3) over Atlanta.  So, you think Atlanta, in their current state of grotesque deformity, is going to be fired up for this trip to Buffalo?  Forecast for Southern Toronto?  38 degrees with rain and snow showers.  Sounds like a dream for a dome team that’s given up on the season.  If Atlanta was a Tecmo Bowl season, they would have hit reset about 10 weeks ago.

New England (-7.5) over Houston.  The Texans have about as much appeal as a Port-0-Let in the Houston humidity. This is teams that have given up on their season…Number two.  The Patriots, on the other hand, should be more than happy to beat the Texans down by a couple of scores.  The only question is, will Bill Belichick screw over everyone with his RB rotation, or just 95% of fantasy players?

New Orleans (+4.5) over Seattle.  Mega Revenge Game.  This is at least double revenge, if not triple.  I’m not going to say, “well the Seahawks will lose at home eventually,” even though that is 100% accurate.  I just think New Orleans is going to get the better of them this time.  And, as not to waiver and back into a cover I’ll later take credit for–I’m expecting outright here.

 

Week 10 NFL Picks.

Can’t Stop Watching.

See, this is football related.  I think this was shot at a Jags open tryout.  Of course, that’s actually maligned Toronto mayor Rob Ford getting stepped on by an imaginary offensive lineman.  I had to post this gif, taken from a treasure trove at Gawker.  It’s just so magical, and Ford’s story is really something. The political system in the United States doesn’t exactly make me beam with pride, so it’s nice to see our progressive neighbors to the north having to deal with this f*cking dolt.  Ford is taking an interesting approach to his substance abuse problem, leaning on a variation of the, “I don’t know, I was in a stupor,” defense.  Strong.  I just hope he gets that second term.  He so clearly deserves a chance at redemption.

Anyway, on to the beers, which Ford probably drinks 40 of each morning–just to level off.

Week 10 Beer:

How About 2X The WInners?

Southern Tier brewery is the pride of Lakewood, New York.  They’ve only been around since 2002, but already have a pretty strong presence in this area.  The first Southern Tier beer I ever sampled was Phin & Matt’s Extraordinary Ale. You’ve got to love the confidence of that name.  I remember it being solid, if not spectacular and Southern Tier remained on the fringes of my radar.  When random six-pack shopping, I rarely picked it up–I think because of the packaging.  They use these high-sided 6-pack boxes that look odd to me.  That’s how discerning I am, people. Anyway, last weekend I was offered a 2X IPA to get back in the Southern Tier mix.

Am I Sorry I didn’t Have Sierra:  No.

The 2X IPA checks in at 8.2% alcohol, which I think makes it the strongest beer that I’ve had so far this season, but I didn’t notice the inflated levels of booze.  When I had the Heady Topper, I immediately felt the rush of inebriation, but the Southern Tier was smooth.  A solid taste that obviously packs a punch.  I guess I had perfectly carb0-loaded. Regardless, I’m ready to try more offerings from Southern Tier.

Rankings So Far:

1. Heady Topper Double IPA
2. Southern Tier 2X IPA
3. Bear Republic Racer 5 IPA
4. Shed IPA
5. Bell’s Midwestern Pale Ale
6. Casco Bay IPA
7. Anderson Valley Hop Ottin’ IPA
8. Deschutes Brewery IPA
9. Otter Creek Hop Session Ale
10. Sierra Nevada Flipside Red IPA

Now, about those winners…

***

Big Dub, Record: 27-18-1

Minnesota (+2.5) over Washington*.  AP goes off for 200+.

Green Bay (-1) over Philadelphia.  Whenever a player in Philly gets our hopes up, they seem to rip our hearts out ASAP.

New York Giants (-7) over Oakland.  Great.  Eagles lose, Giants win.

Baltimore (+1.5) over Cincinnati and Carolina (+6) over San Francisco.  Some clown put a $65,000 parlay on San Francisco and Cincinnati.  I have to go opposite. At worst, I’ll split.    

*Already happened.

***

Kraft, 27-17-1

Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Miami.  I usually like to stay away from slop, but Tampa has too much talent to go 0-16, and Miami is the one team right now that is more of a train wreck with the Incognito scandal.  I just hope no one ever finds out what Gross makes us do to participate in the Pick ‘Em Challenge.

Seattle (-6) over Atlanta.  Matt Ryan is planning buddy golf trips for January.

Philadelphia (+1) over Green Bay.  Seneca Wallace over my dead body.  Foles is like a young Tom Brady, only better.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Buffalo.

San Francisco (-6) over Carolina.  It’s time to play the big boys.

***

Grossy, 27-17-1

Arizona (-3) over Houston.  Arizona is a decent team.  It’s weird to see those words being formed, but it’s true.  Their defense is especially tough.  It’s going to be Ben Tate for 2 yds, and then Kase Ceenum throwing picks left and right to PP and the Honey Badger.  I’d expect several elaborate returns featuring throwbacks and laterals.

Cincinnati (-1.5) over Baltimore.  As much as I want the guy to lose that parlay (such a bitter, horrible person), I agree on this game.  The Ravens are an expired diaper load.  If Cincy wants to bury the division–this is their chance.  I think the rich man’s Glenn Foley bounces back after last week and engineers a win.

Seattle (-6) over Atlanta.  See above.  The Falcons have called it a year.  Maybe they can go ahead and draft another WR with the 5th pick.  Matty Ice obviously needs more weapons.  PS, revenge for Seattle.

Chicago (+2.5) over Detroit.  Trying to determine which game the Lions will revert to playing like THEE LIONS is not easy, but something clicked in my gut here.  In Chicago?  They go down in a heap.

Miami (-2.5) over Tampa Bay.  The Dolphins are in shambles, but it seems they are rallying around their own horrible locker room atmosphere.  This is what these guys thrive on!  The Dolphins win and then make the Bucs elephant walk off the field.

***

Nichols, Record: 22-23

1. Buffalo (+3) over Pittsburgh
2. Seattle (-6) over Atlanta
3. Detroit (-2.5) over Chicago
4. Houston (+3) over Arizona
5. Miami (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

***

JCK, Record: 21-23-1

1. New York Giants (-7) over Oakland
2. San Francisco (-6) over Carolina
3. Denver (-7) over San Diego
4. Indianapolis (-9.5) over St. Louis
5. Green Bay (-1) over Philadelphia

***

DC, Record: 22-21-2

1. Carolina (+6) over San Francisco
2. Baltimore (+1.5) over Cincinnati
3. Houston (+3) over Arizona
4. Indianapolis (-9.5) over St. Louis
5. Atlanta (-6) over Seattle

 

Week Nine NFL Picks.

Things Actually Come From Maine.

On the night the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with a 16.5 win total over/under in Vegas, surged to 2-0 and confused a fanbase with their winning ways, their building-mates, the Flyers, got thoroughly embarrassed and then embarrassed themselves in a 7-0 loss to the Capitals.  That was without Alexander Ovechkin, if you are the kind of person who is interested in such details.  The Flyers dropped to 3-9 (3-6 since firing Peter Laviolette), which is their worst start in the history of the franchise. Changing coaches has obviously done nothing for the team, and earlier this week, the Flyers parodied themselves by trading Max Talbot to Colorado for Steve Downie.  Because this is a Flyers trade it probably goes without saying that Downie has already been with the organization, has a reputation that ranges from gritty to cheap-shot artist, and won’t help this year’s team in any way.  Downie fought in his debut, suffered a concussion and somewhere Paul Holmgren was trying to track down Todd Fedoruk.  Vincent Lecavalier also was injured in a 5 on 5 brawl in the third period.

Why am I mentioning this?  Well, it’s important to realize that as bad as I thought things were with the Flyers when the season started, they are actually much worse.  Rock bottom is probably coming sometime mid-winter and then next summer there will be a press conference introducing Bob Clarke as the team’s new GM.  The Sixers appear to have a plan.  The Flyers do not.  It’s going to be a long, losing winter.  It means you’ve got to hang onto every last week of football and savor it before it’s gone.  It’s already week nine.  Damn.

***

Week Nine Beer:  Casco Bay IPA

I’ve been wanted to try a beer from Maine for a few weeks now, but I’ve never seen one where I pick up my six-packs.  Maine is up there–it might as well be Canada, and I guess the lines of distribution don’t often make it down this way.  Also note that I haven’t been looking particularly hard–more of a casual pursuit.  So anyway, last weekend when I was in Boston, I saw plenty of Maine beers from Shipyard, Allagash, etc.  I settled on the Casco Bay.

Am I sorry I didn’t get Sierra:  NO.

Casco Bay IPA is a very traditional tasting IPA.  It reminded me a bit of the Otter Creek I had last week, in the sense that it seemed to be very drinkable, but lacked a distinct and lasting flavor.  It won’t overwhelm you, I had a couple after a day of drinking at a football game and felt no ill-effects.  Probably not the best Maine has to offer, but a decent start.

Rankings So Far:

1. Heady Topper Double IPA
2. Bear Republic Racer 5 IPA
3. Shed IPA
4. Bell’s Midwestern Pale Ale
5. Casco Bay IPA
6. Anderson Valley Hop Ottin’ IPA
7. Deschutes Brewery IPA
8. Otter Creek Hop Session Ale
9. Sierra Nevada Flipside Red IPA

***

Time to bask in expertise…

Big Dub, Record: 25-14-1

Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay.  Mike Glennon is consistently throwing the ball 40 times.  It’s only a matter of time before he throws a pick-6 in that game.

Cleveland (+2.5) over Baltimore.  The Ravens are complete garbage and this is where they prove it.

Buffalo (+3.5) over Kansas City.  The Bills…OUTRIGHT.

Atlanta (+7.5) over Carolina.  Buying low on the Falcons, Selling High on the Panthers.

Dallas (-10) over Minnesota.  Samantha Ponder may file for divorce after Christian disgraces the name.

***

Kraft, Record: 25-14-1

1. Atlanta (+7.5) over Carolina
2. Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis
3. Washington (+1) over San Diego
4. Buffalo (+3.5) over Kansas City
5. Dallas (-10) over Minnesota

***

DC, Record: 18-20-2

Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis.  Tennessee has played a strong schedule, so I think they’re probably better than their record at this point.  On the other hand, Jeff Garcia seems like a reasonable possibility to start for the Rams.  So there’s that.

Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo.  Is this a trap line?  Why only 3.5 points when Buffalo may be starting Jeff Kemp?

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston.  Again, this feels like I’m being trapped, but the line is low enough that taking the far better team seems like the right thing to do.  Let’s not overthink this.

Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay.  Let’s make the exact same pick as last week and see if we get a different result.

Washington (+1) over San Diego.  West Coast team flying east for 1pm game theory.

***

Grossy, Record: 23-16-1

New England (-6.5) over Pittsburgh.  This could be a bit of a foreign concept to people in Philadelphia, but the Patriots are a good home team.  They have a home field advantage.  Last week they played the worst 1st first half in the history of time and still covered against Miami.  The Dolphins are EASILY better than the Steelers.  EASILY.

New Orleans (-6.5) over New York Jets.  Brees is going to torch the Jets.  The best thing about the Saints is that they don’t give up 40 points a game anymore, so you can feel a little bit more comfortable taking them as favorites.  That 49-9 had to shake NY’s confidence a bit.  Six and half is a number from the Gods.  I call it 1st drive Coverville.

Tennessee (-3) over St. Louis.  Still a little displeased with St. Louis, so call this Spite Pick 3: The Return of Flipper Anderson.

Philadelphia (+2.5) over Oakland.  The Eagles are going to screw this up.  I mean the season.  Somehow they are going to be terrible this year AND ruin their chances in the draft.  That’s what feels right.   There aren’t a lot of winnable games left on the schedule, but this is certainly one of them.  Nick Foles produces one of the top-5 ugliest wins in Eagles’ history and no one knows what to think come Monday morning.

Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo.  I suppose the Chiefs aren’t going to go 16-0, but their defense is so good that it doesn’t feel like this will be game they’ll lose.  Not against the Bills, who may go ahead and start Toolzy.  Or better yet, Matt Flynn.  I don’t know what it means when you are missing Thad Lewis, but it has something to do with being a Bills fan.

***

JCK, Record: 19-21-1

1. New Orleans (-6.5) over New York Jets
2. San Diego (-1) over Washington
3. New England (-6.5) over Pittsburgh
4. Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston

***

Nichols, Record: 19-21

1. Kansas City (-3.5) over Buffalo
2. Oakland (-2.5) over Philadelphia
3. Seattle (-16) over Tampa Bay
4. Indianapolis (-2.5) over Houston
5. Chicago (+11) over Green Bay